In recent developments, the China Economics Industry Index Research Center of the Economic Daily and the National Bureau of Statistics' China Economic Climate Monitoring Center jointly released a comprehensive report analyzing the current state of China's industrial sector. Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics' China National Economic Statistics Monitoring Center, emphasized that overcapacity remains the most pressing issue in the industry. Under the policy framework focused on maintaining stable growth, restructuring, and reform, the macro economy is expected to continue its steady and positive trajectory this year.
Domestic steel demand is anticipated to grow, albeit at a slower pace. With the implementation of the "Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan" and the "Guiding Opinions on Resolving Severe Overcapacity," new capacity in the steel industry will face restrictions, while the pace of eliminating outdated production capacity is set to accelerate. This is likely to result in a weak balance between supply and demand, with steel prices receiving some support but remaining in a low-level consolidation phase. As a result, the steel industry’s already meager profit margins are expected to persist.
The boom monitoring results indicate that the China Economic and Industrial Industry Climate Index has remained stable for six consecutive quarters, with only a minor fluctuation of 0.2 points. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the overall industrial sector and key industries showed stability, with several operational indicators performing consistently well.
The index for the fourth quarter of 2013 stood at 95.3, slightly down by 0.1 point from the previous quarter. Among the key industries monitored, nine sectors—including equipment manufacturing, coal, oil, steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and home appliances—remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations observed in cement and power industries. From a production perspective, the growth rate of industrial output was 10.0%, matching the previous quarter's performance. On the price front, industrial producers’ purchase and ex-factory prices saw almost zero growth between October and December 2013. Employment figures also showed stability, with the number of large-scale industrial enterprises increasing by 1.8% year-on-year, similar to the previous quarter.
Pan Jiancheng remarked that the stability of economic operations is rare in history. He noted that despite global economies operating in a low-growth environment, major developed and developing nations have experienced slower growth compared to China. The fact that the industrial climate index has maintained a steady trend is no small feat.
Data reveals that China's GDP has remained within a range of 7% to 8% for seven consecutive quarters. Industrial producer prices have shown zero growth for three months in a row, and the growth rate of industrial GDP has remained stable. According to Pan, these figures reflect an underlying structural optimization, with rising sentiment in consumption-related industries and declining performance in resource-intensive sectors. A steady growth path helps avoid the negative cycles of overconsumption and underutilization caused by economic volatility, reduces the need for frequent policy adjustments, and minimizes the adverse effects of economic uncertainty on business operations. It also creates a more favorable environment for reform and transformation.
However, there are still significant downward pressures on the industrial economy. Overcapacity and insufficient demand remain key challenges. Pan pointed out that the accumulated excess capacity in industries such as steel will be difficult to resolve in the short term.
To sustain stable and healthy industrial growth, he suggested increasing reforms and transformations, enhancing marketization, encouraging private investment, and improving expectations around market-driven reforms to support sustainable manufacturing development. The success of the industrial economy in maintaining high levels of growth for a long time can be attributed, in part, to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and revitalizing enterprise vitality.
Monitoring data shows that after accounting for random factors like policy changes, the China Economic and Industrial Boom Index fell slightly in the fourth quarter of 2013, dropping 1.6 points compared to the unadjusted index. However, the difference was just 0.2 points higher than the previous quarter. Throughout the year, the adjusted index remained lower than the unadjusted one, indicating that policies played a positive role in maintaining industrial stability.
Over the past year, industrial efficiency improved, and profit growth became more robust, leading to better overall operational quality. Consumption and equipment manufacturing sectors accelerated, while the expansion of "two high" (high pollution and high energy consumption) industries gradually slowed, contributing to a continuously optimized industrial structure.
Looking ahead to 2014, the report suggests that China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with favorable domestic and international factors continuing to accumulate. The industrial economy is expected to show further improvement. It is projected that the industrial economic prosperity index for the first and second quarters of 2014 will stand at 95.2 and 95.3, respectively, signaling a continued trend toward stability.
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