Talking about Earthquake Prediction

Earthquake forecasting is one of the most challenging scientific problems globally. Although humans have only been conducting systematic research on earthquake prediction for over thirty years, significant progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms and patterns behind seismic events. Despite this, our knowledge remains incomplete, and accurate prediction of all earthquakes is still far from being achieved. While we can make some mid- and long-term forecasts with a certain level of reliability, short-term predictions remain highly uncertain and difficult to accomplish with high accuracy.

China stands out as the only country recognized by UNESCO for its successful short-term earthquake forecasts. In February 1975, the 7.3-magnitude earthquake in Haicheng, Liaoning, was successfully predicted, saving countless lives. Additionally, several major earthquakes, such as those in Songpan-Pingwu (1976), Yanyuan-Yaning (1976), and Ninglang (1998), were forecasted to varying degrees, resulting in significant social benefits. However, not all disasters were predicted—such as the devastating 7.8-magnitude Tangshan earthquake in 1976. Globally, earthquake prediction remains in an exploratory phase, even in developed countries like the United States and Japan, where it is still far less precise than weather forecasting.

From a global perspective, earthquake prediction is still in the early stages of scientific research and is not yet fully mature. The release of earthquake predictions can have significant social, political, and economic impacts. Therefore, strict regulations are in place to control who can issue such forecasts.

It is crucial to remember that only local governments at or above the county level have the authority to officially announce earthquake predictions. No individual, organization, or research institution, including those within the earthquake department, is allowed to publicly share or disseminate such information. This ensures that the public receives reliable and authorized warnings.

Earthquake prediction involves using scientific methods to estimate the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes, particularly strong ones affecting cities. Through extensive research on the processes that lead to earthquakes and the signs that precede them, China has developed a unique approach to earthquake forecasting. This includes a structured process known as "long-term, medium-term, short-term, and imminent" prediction, which allows for gradual and progressive forecasting.

Currently, earthquake forecasts are based on integrated analyses of various geophysical data, such as seismic activity, electromagnetic changes, gravity variations, crustal deformation, and groundwater fluctuations. These combined indicators help scientists better understand potential seismic risks and improve the accuracy of their predictions over time.