From the current situation analysis, the world economy is expected to experience a slow recovery in 2010, and the overall environment facing China's foreign trade development tends to improve. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2010, with developed countries growing by 1.3% and emerging economies and developing countries by 5.1%. The policy measures for stabilizing financial markets in various countries have achieved remarkable results, financial market risks have been reduced, and financing functions are gradually recovering. LIBOR/OIS spreads and TED spreads reflecting the liquidity and risk of international financial markets have fallen sharply to pre-crisis levels. Increased confidence in lending by financial institutions. With the joint efforts of the international community, international financial institutions and regional financial institutions have raised large-scale funds to provide liquidity support for foreign trade enterprises. The financing difficulties that plague international trade have been alleviated to a certain extent, which is conducive to enterprises to conduct foreign trade. However, due to the lack of momentum in the recovery of the world economy, many deep-seated contradictions and problems have not yet been fundamentally resolved. The recovery of the world economy will be difficult and tortuous. The demand of the international market will not recover significantly in the short term. China's foreign trade development still faces many uncertain and unstable factors:
-- The world economy is recovering slowly, and it is difficult for foreign demand to rebound sharply. The expansionary fiscal and monetary policies of major developed countries have limited space. The fiscal deficit of the US fiscal year reached 1.4 trillion US dollars, 3.1 times that of fiscal 2008, and the deficit rate was as high as 10%. It has reached a new high since World War II, and the fiscal deficits of Germany and France. With a rate of more than 3%, Japan’s fiscal deficit rate reached 9.4%, and national benchmark interest rates were also at historically low levels. The improvement of the employment situation generally lags behind the economic recovery. The unemployment rate of major economies may continue to deteriorate. It is difficult to see a significant improvement in the independent growth of consumption and investment. New economic growth points supported by technological progress have not yet formed. Affected by this, the world economy and international market demand will not see a sharp rebound in the short term.
-- The main economies have increased self-sufficiency and trade protectionism has intensified. As the world economy moves from recession to recovery, due to the different economic recovery processes in various countries, the willingness to cooperate in international policy is weakened, and coordination is more difficult. Failure to deal with it will affect the process of world economic recovery. Under domestic pressure, the major economies will further enhance their self-sufficiency and will give priority to solving domestic employment and industrial development issues, and continue to introduce various trade restrictions and protection measures, and trade protectionism will intensify. Even if the world economy recovers, international trade will not rebound sharply. The International Monetary Fund predicts that global trade in goods will only grow by 2.7% in 2010, lower than expected for world economic growth.
——The competition in the international market is more intense, and China’s exports are facing increasing pressure. After the international financial crisis, developed countries proposed to revive the manufacturing industry, and some countries also indicated that they would ease the domestic trade deficit by expanding exports. The overall competitiveness of many developing countries’ exports has risen further and may continue to compete for international markets through the depreciation of local currency. This will enable China to face direct competition from developed countries in the mid- to high-end products sector and face more challenges in developing countries in the field of traditional superior products.
-- International commodity prices may fluctuate at high levels and business risks increase. As the world economy recovers, global resources and energy demand will pick up in 2010. In the context of ultra-low interest rates and loose monetary policy, factors such as speculation and lower US dollar exchange rates may push up commodity prices and push up Chinese companies. Import and export costs. Once the world economic recovery encounters setbacks, international commodity prices may fluctuate at high levels, increasing the operational risks of Chinese companies' import and export. In addition, in the face of increasingly fierce international competition, China's export products will face greater pressure to cut prices, and the profit margin of enterprises will be further compressed, which will weaken the development momentum of Chinese enterprises.
At the same time, we must also see that there are still many favorable conditions and positive factors for maintaining China's foreign trade development:
—— China has a complete range of industries and strong corporate competitiveness. Since the reform and opening up, China has made great progress in industrialization through the vigorous development of modern industry and emerging industries, and has formed a relatively complete industrial system. The processing and manufacturing and industrial supporting capabilities have been greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of foreign trade. China has a large number of highly qualified laborers with high production efficiency. Most of the exported products belong to the middle and low-end, mainly for daily necessities. The demand elasticity is small and the impact from the crisis is relatively light. Coupled with the high cost performance of Chinese products, some foreign consumers who originally purchased high-end products may switch to Chinese products, which will increase demand for Chinese products. Especially in recent years, China's import and export enterprises have experienced the test of RMB appreciation, export tax rebate rate reduction, processing trade policy tightening, rising labor costs, shrinking external demand, etc. The ability to cope with complex environmental changes has been continuously enhanced and competitiveness has been significantly improved. .
-- The scale of trade in emerging markets is small and the development space is large. For a long time, the scale of trade between China and emerging markets has been relatively small. Although in recent years, with the implementation of the market diversification strategy, China’s trade with emerging economies and developing countries has continued to grow rapidly, but its share in the total trade. It is still not high, and the trade volume is not commensurate with the economic scale between the two sides. There is a lot of room for development. As the economic strength of these countries and regions continues to increase, the diversification strategy of the Chinese market is further implemented in depth, trade is becoming more and more convenient, and trade between China's development and emerging markets is promising.
-- "Going out" is in the ascendant, driving the export effect. In recent years, the pace of “going out†of Chinese enterprises has obviously accelerated. A large number of domestically advantageous enterprises have stepped out of the country and actively carried out foreign investment, project contracting and labor cooperation on a global scale. The ability to utilize two markets and two resources has been continuously enhanced. While developing the local economy and employment, it also drives domestic product exports. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, some foreign companies have set a good opportunity for Chinese companies to “go global†in order to get rid of the operational difficulties and increase their willingness to cooperate internationally. Some countries and regions have relatively loose foreign investment policies and invested heavily in stimulating the economy. . With the in-depth implementation of the “going out†strategy, Chinese enterprises will participate more broadly in the process of global economic integration, jointly promote the recovery and prosperity of the world economy, and will also become an important channel for China's product exports.
According to comprehensive analysis, the overall environment facing China's foreign trade development in 2010 is generally good, but it also faces many uncertain and unstable factors. We must not only see the positive changes and favorable conditions for China's foreign trade development, but also further enhance the confidence of development; we must also fully estimate the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the situation, and consider all aspects of difficulties and risks more fully. We will work harder to cope with various challenges, further implement and improve policies and measures to support the development of foreign trade, and improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policies. The vast number of enterprises should strengthen their own management, practice basic skills, accelerate the pace of scientific and technological innovation, further optimize the structure of import and export commodities, strive to promote the transformation of foreign trade development mode, and promote the healthy and stable development of foreign trade.
-- The world economy is recovering slowly, and it is difficult for foreign demand to rebound sharply. The expansionary fiscal and monetary policies of major developed countries have limited space. The fiscal deficit of the US fiscal year reached 1.4 trillion US dollars, 3.1 times that of fiscal 2008, and the deficit rate was as high as 10%. It has reached a new high since World War II, and the fiscal deficits of Germany and France. With a rate of more than 3%, Japan’s fiscal deficit rate reached 9.4%, and national benchmark interest rates were also at historically low levels. The improvement of the employment situation generally lags behind the economic recovery. The unemployment rate of major economies may continue to deteriorate. It is difficult to see a significant improvement in the independent growth of consumption and investment. New economic growth points supported by technological progress have not yet formed. Affected by this, the world economy and international market demand will not see a sharp rebound in the short term.
-- The main economies have increased self-sufficiency and trade protectionism has intensified. As the world economy moves from recession to recovery, due to the different economic recovery processes in various countries, the willingness to cooperate in international policy is weakened, and coordination is more difficult. Failure to deal with it will affect the process of world economic recovery. Under domestic pressure, the major economies will further enhance their self-sufficiency and will give priority to solving domestic employment and industrial development issues, and continue to introduce various trade restrictions and protection measures, and trade protectionism will intensify. Even if the world economy recovers, international trade will not rebound sharply. The International Monetary Fund predicts that global trade in goods will only grow by 2.7% in 2010, lower than expected for world economic growth.
——The competition in the international market is more intense, and China’s exports are facing increasing pressure. After the international financial crisis, developed countries proposed to revive the manufacturing industry, and some countries also indicated that they would ease the domestic trade deficit by expanding exports. The overall competitiveness of many developing countries’ exports has risen further and may continue to compete for international markets through the depreciation of local currency. This will enable China to face direct competition from developed countries in the mid- to high-end products sector and face more challenges in developing countries in the field of traditional superior products.
-- International commodity prices may fluctuate at high levels and business risks increase. As the world economy recovers, global resources and energy demand will pick up in 2010. In the context of ultra-low interest rates and loose monetary policy, factors such as speculation and lower US dollar exchange rates may push up commodity prices and push up Chinese companies. Import and export costs. Once the world economic recovery encounters setbacks, international commodity prices may fluctuate at high levels, increasing the operational risks of Chinese companies' import and export. In addition, in the face of increasingly fierce international competition, China's export products will face greater pressure to cut prices, and the profit margin of enterprises will be further compressed, which will weaken the development momentum of Chinese enterprises.
At the same time, we must also see that there are still many favorable conditions and positive factors for maintaining China's foreign trade development:
—— China has a complete range of industries and strong corporate competitiveness. Since the reform and opening up, China has made great progress in industrialization through the vigorous development of modern industry and emerging industries, and has formed a relatively complete industrial system. The processing and manufacturing and industrial supporting capabilities have been greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of foreign trade. China has a large number of highly qualified laborers with high production efficiency. Most of the exported products belong to the middle and low-end, mainly for daily necessities. The demand elasticity is small and the impact from the crisis is relatively light. Coupled with the high cost performance of Chinese products, some foreign consumers who originally purchased high-end products may switch to Chinese products, which will increase demand for Chinese products. Especially in recent years, China's import and export enterprises have experienced the test of RMB appreciation, export tax rebate rate reduction, processing trade policy tightening, rising labor costs, shrinking external demand, etc. The ability to cope with complex environmental changes has been continuously enhanced and competitiveness has been significantly improved. .
-- The scale of trade in emerging markets is small and the development space is large. For a long time, the scale of trade between China and emerging markets has been relatively small. Although in recent years, with the implementation of the market diversification strategy, China’s trade with emerging economies and developing countries has continued to grow rapidly, but its share in the total trade. It is still not high, and the trade volume is not commensurate with the economic scale between the two sides. There is a lot of room for development. As the economic strength of these countries and regions continues to increase, the diversification strategy of the Chinese market is further implemented in depth, trade is becoming more and more convenient, and trade between China's development and emerging markets is promising.
-- "Going out" is in the ascendant, driving the export effect. In recent years, the pace of “going out†of Chinese enterprises has obviously accelerated. A large number of domestically advantageous enterprises have stepped out of the country and actively carried out foreign investment, project contracting and labor cooperation on a global scale. The ability to utilize two markets and two resources has been continuously enhanced. While developing the local economy and employment, it also drives domestic product exports. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, some foreign companies have set a good opportunity for Chinese companies to “go global†in order to get rid of the operational difficulties and increase their willingness to cooperate internationally. Some countries and regions have relatively loose foreign investment policies and invested heavily in stimulating the economy. . With the in-depth implementation of the “going out†strategy, Chinese enterprises will participate more broadly in the process of global economic integration, jointly promote the recovery and prosperity of the world economy, and will also become an important channel for China's product exports.
According to comprehensive analysis, the overall environment facing China's foreign trade development in 2010 is generally good, but it also faces many uncertain and unstable factors. We must not only see the positive changes and favorable conditions for China's foreign trade development, but also further enhance the confidence of development; we must also fully estimate the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the situation, and consider all aspects of difficulties and risks more fully. We will work harder to cope with various challenges, further implement and improve policies and measures to support the development of foreign trade, and improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policies. The vast number of enterprises should strengthen their own management, practice basic skills, accelerate the pace of scientific and technological innovation, further optimize the structure of import and export commodities, strive to promote the transformation of foreign trade development mode, and promote the healthy and stable development of foreign trade.
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Acrylic Floor Display Stand
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