A **summary** report from the Conference Board highlighted that, when examining the economic performance of several Asian economies over the past two decades, their per capita GDP has quadrupled. This suggests that, historically, China is not the top performer in terms of economic growth. In fact, Japan and Taiwan have outpaced China in this regard.
According to a study by the non-profit financial consultancy, many articles about China’s rapid economic expansion over the past 30 years often cite two key points: first, that China has experienced an average annual growth rate of 10% over the last three decades, and second, that its long-term growth record is unmatched in modern history. However, the report challenges these claims, suggesting that they may not be entirely accurate.
The report, authored by senior consultant and economist Harry X. Wu, argues that China's actual annual economic growth between 1978 and 2012 was around 7.2%, not 10%. Additionally, it notes that if you look at the broader Asian context, many economies have seen similar or even greater growth in per capita GDP over the same period. This implies that China, while still a major economic power, is not the global leader in economic growth when viewed historically.
The discussion isn't about who can boast the highest growth rate, but rather about the importance of accurate data for decision-making. As Wu points out, during periods of economic slowdown, inaccurate data can have far-reaching consequences, affecting business strategies, policy planning, and household decisions—both inside and outside of China.
Many economists have raised questions about the reliability of China’s GDP statistics. Former Premier Li Keqiang once mentioned that GDP is “less reliable†and preferred to rely on indicators like electricity consumption, rail freight, and loan data to gauge economic health. Similarly, Wu argues that China tends to overestimate productivity growth and understate inflation, which affects the accuracy of its GDP figures.
Political factors also play a role, particularly the pressure on local officials to meet GDP targets, which has long been a key factor in promotions. However, this focus is gradually shifting, with new leadership emphasizing environmental sustainability and other metrics alongside economic growth.
What makes the Conference Board’s report unique is the extensive time frame analyzed by Wu, including periods when China's economy faced significant challenges. The gap between official data and Wu’s calculations becomes more evident during economic downturns. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, China’s official growth rate was reported as 9.6%, while Wu estimates it was only 4.7%. Similarly, in 2012, when Europe was in recession, China's official growth was 7.7%, but Wu estimates it was just 4.1%.
Wu also highlights that after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the discrepancy between official numbers and real economic performance became more pronounced. He describes this period as one of growing overcapacity in state-dominated industries, where local governments competed fiercely to boost GDP growth in order to attract investment.
In contrast, his analysis of China’s economic data from 1952 to 1978, during the planned economy era, showed that the official growth rates were more consistent with actual outcomes. A chart from the report compares China’s official GDP growth with that of the Consultation Bureau, as well as the growth rates of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
While some critics argue that the report lacks detail—such as not fully explaining how Wu recalculated China’s GDP data—its conclusions remain impactful. It raises important questions about whether China’s economic achievements are as impressive as officially claimed.
Even with Wu’s adjusted figures, China’s 7.2% annual growth over the past 30 years is still remarkable. However, compared to other high-growth Asian economies like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, it appears less exceptional. Regardless, the debate over the accuracy of China’s economic data continues to shape global perceptions of its economic performance.
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