Zinc, lead, force, colored market "into the volt"

According to price monitoring, there were 9 kinds of goods in the non-ferrous metals sector in the commodity price rise/fall list in July 2014, of which there were 9 kinds of commodities, of which 5 products were increased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The commodities are zinc (market) (7.03%), lead (market) (6.21%), and cobalt (6.06%).

There were 20 kinds of commodities with a month-on-month decline, and a total of 5% or more of commodities fell, accounting for 3.2% of the monitored products; the top 3 products were metal yttrium (-8.33%) and metal yttrium (-4.94). %), yttrium oxide (-3.33%). The average monthly increase or decrease was -0.17%.

The non-ferrous market in July continued the upward trend in the second half of June, and the entire sector was still rising. The monitoring data of the business club showed that the non-ferrous industry index was 823 points at the beginning of the month, and the index rose to 837 points as of July 31, up 14 point. After experiencing repeated shocks in May-June, the market began to rise overall this month. In line with the current solar terms, it can be said that the non-ferrous market in July has also entered the “head of the day,” but this wave has risen even more as a result of individual varieties. The overall action is still insufficient.

This month's market seems to be similar to last month, but it is not the same. The ups and downs are still being staged this month. In July, the market is still experiencing a half-trend surge. The basic metal plate variety turns up this year, first nickel, and then zinc. , And then lead, zinc, lead concentration this month, rising, one after another, business community monitoring data show that lead spot rose as high as 4.88% on the 28th, although this increase did not exceed the 9.69% increase in single-day creation of nickel soared However, for such products as lead, which have relatively small trading volume and low activity, such a high rate of increase is also a record. Although the market is also experiencing skyrocketing prices, the difference is that the product has changed. The top runner-up this month was zinc (7.03%) and lead (6.21%) respectively. Compared with the previous month, the difference is that this month's small metal The performance was outstanding. Under the dividend of the policy, several small star metal products emerged this month. The increase in both antimony and cobalt exceeded 5%, benefiting from the measures taken by the State Reserve Bureau to store molybdenum oxide and electrolytic cobalt, and the domestic cobalt market was higher. Cobalt City was stimulated by news news prices rose rapidly, the overall market has yet to be digested, and downstream acceptance is still a stalemate. After the news of the purchase and storage of assets is expected to be exhausted, the cobalt market will return to calm. However, due to the tight supply of manufacturers and the market speculation, prices have been pushed up, but market demand has not risen. Due to the slow season of entering demand, the growth of small metals is limited, and it is expected that the small metal market will have a big ups and downs.

There are several reasons for the higher market this month: On the one hand, from the perspective of products, the sharp increase in lead and zinc has laid the tone for the rise of the sector, and other basic metals such as aluminum and tin have risen to varying degrees, and aluminum has risen more than 5 %. Second, from the supply of the industry, some types of inventories continue to consume, LME copper stocks fell to 150,900 tons in the last week of July, the lowest since August 2008; zinc stocks also fell to 650,000 tons, since December 2010 At the lowest level, aluminum stocks inventories fell to 4.95 million tons, the lowest since September 2012, and the continuous decline in inventories led directly to a higher external disk. In June, the import volume of some varieties also decreased. In June, refined copper imports reached 255,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.16%. The decrease in import volume also helped to ease domestic supply, and the demand also reflected a decrease in demand. In addition, from a macroscopic point of view, the Politburo held a meeting a few days ago and decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee in Beijing in October. The overall requirements of the meeting are to maintain a certain growth rate of the economy and to further implement steady growth. The economic momentum of the United States has also been strengthened. Its employment market prospects have improved. Although all parties have some positive factors, the non-ferrous market as a whole can still be insufficient. Basic metal products are still divergent and divergent. While lead and zinc are gaining momentum, copper as the metal leader has once again shown weakness this month, a decrease of -2.33%. The performance of copper also reflects the unstable foundation of the entire colored plates. Compared with the same period of last year, the market in July of this year was also abnormal. The market that was supposed to be under shock adjustment or off-season prices showed many “growth points.” After overdrafts of some varieties, the prices of gold, nine silver and ten stocks are likely to be To be greatly reduced. This month, the business community released the July commodity supply and demand index (BCI) of -0.25, with an average increase of 0.06%. The manufacturing economy contracted from the previous month this month. The economy is still at the bottom of the operation, and there is still a lack of staying power from a macro perspective.

Since entering in July, the non-ferrous market has continued to oscillate repeatedly. Despite the various performances of various products, the overall development of the forum has maintained an upward trend. After undergoing the soaring of nickel, zinc and lead have also begun to develop one after another, showing skyrocketing growth. Yan Xia believes that the slump in the off-season market is still limited. In June, the downstream product industries such as galvanizing, alloys, copper pipes and cables continued to decline. After experiencing the Qingdao Hong Kong fraudulent loan incident in June, due to the bank’s further tightening of supervision over the issuing companies, the Downstream companies are further restricted in issuance of permits, and credit lines have been further reduced. Banks have generally increased the company's issuance of permits, which has led to a significant increase in the cost of issuing companies, and the purchasing power of downstream buyers has also been greatly reduced. On the one hand, the demand is weakening. On the other hand, some varieties are facing the pressure of increasing supply again. In the first half of the year, the continuous rebound in the aluminum market has allowed some companies to resume production. Recently, Chinalco also stated that it will restart or partially Resumption of production capacity, according to incomplete statistics, only in July-August, China will plan to resume production of electrolytic aluminum capacity of more than 400,000 tons, when the market will face a new round of supply pressure. Taking nickel as a mirror, after several rounds of skyrocketing in May and June, the nickel market has entered a correction phase this month. In the off-season trend, lead and zinc rising upwards do not rule out the old path of nickel.

In general, the market entered the off-season, and downstream consumer demand was poor. Fan Yanxia analyzed that due to entering the flood season, the small metal companies will start to upgrade, so the future market is difficult to ups and downs, the non-ferrous market in July seems to have overdrawn too much gains, in August the market is expected to stabilize and maintain the range of shocks The basic metal species will continue to show a polarization trend. Some products such as zinc and lead may be pulled back, while copper may be adjusted upwards. Rare earth plates will continue to be weak under the guidance of clear positive policies. This year's non-ferrous market is probably only a "head-butt". The momentum in the middle and end will be greatly reduced or it will not come directly into the autumn.