Some understandings on the correct analysis of the environmental economic situation

Understanding the evolution of environmental quality and the essence of movement is to understand the synergy between the environment and the economy, and to understand how the dynamic changes in the relationship between the environment and the economy adapt to the demands of the overall economic growth, and ultimately serve the improvement of productivity. In this regard, the core of various environmental protection policies is to constantly adjust the relationship between the environment and the economy. It is necessary to play an active role in protecting the environment at the ecological level. It is also necessary to exert the influence of economic regulation on the economic level and let the environment and the economy Always within the controllable boundaries, and go hand in hand. To this end, according to the theory of environmental economics combined with China's national conditions, it is necessary to carry out timely analysis and tracking of the environmental economic situation, make judgments and prejudgments on the environmental economic situation, and provide a basis for the next environmental protection policy.

1. What is the environmental economic situation?
The environmental economic situation is a judgment that analyzes the current and medium- and long-term environmental and economic characteristics. It is an important policy tool for “expected management” of both environmental and economic work. It has a narrow and broad distinction.
In a narrow sense, the environmental economic situation refers to the medium- and long-term evolutionary relationship between the environment and the economy in the process of development, and the various environmental and economic characteristics presented in the short-term in a specific development stage. The former can characterize the dynamic relationship between environmental quality and economic growth through the environmental Kuznets curve. There is a relatively mature research in this academic circle; the latter comes directly from the annual (or semi-annual) periodic environment and economy. The indicators are reflected in relatively static environmental economic indicators. Compared with other short-term economic situations, such as the “macroeconomic situation”, the static analysis of the environmental economy mainly focuses on the short-term environmental economic characteristics, and the related research is less. The state to be developed.
In a broad sense, in addition to the basic environmental economic characteristics, the environmental economic situation also includes analysis and pre-judgment of the evolution and impact of environmental economic related fields, including changes in various environmental and economic financial investment trade indicators, as well as various domestic and foreign The trend of environmental-related policies has a wide coverage and is difficult to analyze. Starting from grasping the basic needs of the current environmental economic situation, this paper will focus on the analysis of the narrow environmental economic situation.

2. Why should we judge the environmental economic situation?
Since the environmental economic situation is an analysis and judgment of the characteristics of the relationship between the environment and the economy, then the primary question that deserves our attention and answers is naturally "is the current environmental economic situation better or worse?" Therefore, the summarization and assessment of the characteristics of environmental and economic relations can help to clarify the effects of current environmental and economic policies, and help us to examine the policy effects and evolution of environmental protection and economic development from a comprehensive perspective of environmental economic development. trend. In other words, taking the environmental protection policy as an example, we cannot affirm the environmental protection policy because it only achieves environmental improvement, nor can it be denied because the environmental protection policy has not achieved environmental results. In the context of the analysis of the environmental economic situation, environmental protection policies undoubtedly play a role together with economic growth policies. Both environmental quality and economic growth are affected by two policy factors, as long as the overall environmental economic situation is good. Going forward on the right track, then the environmental and economic policies are mutually reinforcing. On the contrary, there is a need to take adjustments.

3. How to judge the current environmental economic situation?
In theory, a large number of studies have analyzed the medium- and long-term relationship between the environment and the economy and its evolution. Such research can be summarized as “environmental macroeconomics”, and the main representative research results are undoubtedly the “environmental Kuznets curve”. The curve depicts the evolutionary relationship between economic quality (contamination emissions) and economic growth (income level). It is found that with the development of the economy, the environmental quality will show a trend of first suppression and then rising. Reverse U, which is commonly known as "environment inverted U-shaped curve." The environmental Kuznets curve provides an important reference for us to judge the medium and long-term environmental economic situation. First, which stage of the curve we are in, which represents the coordination of the relationship between the environment and the economy, if still At the “climbing stage” in front of the apex, at this time, the environmental quality is declining, the economy continues to grow, and the relationship between the environment and the economy needs to be improved; if it is the “downhill” stage after the apex, at this time, the economy continues. Growth, while environmental quality is improving, and the environment and the economy are positively interacting. Second, the different shapes of the environmental Kuznets curve also represent the different environmental economic situations, including when the vertices are reached and what is the height of the vertices? Etc. These also mean the same level of environmental economic development, but they have different environmental economic implications and different environmental economic trends. Therefore, an environmental Kuznets curve has a very rich environmental economic information, which is of great help to our study of the environmental economic situation.
However, the complexity of the environmental economic situation is that even though the analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve clarifies the medium- and long-term development path, the evolution of the environmental economic situation still faces great uncertainty, which is mainly due to the uncertainty. Changes in environmental economic relations in the short term. In particular, due to short-term environmental economic policies, the development of the environmental economic situation is still likely to change. In the short term, the fluctuations of environmental economic policies are affected by many factors, from institutional changes to technical changes, etc., similar changes and changes. Both will have an impact on the environmental economic situation, which in turn will affect the final shape of the environmental Kuznets curve. In other words, based on the environmental economic relations derived from the mature market economy system in the West, if the corresponding localization is not revised, the conclusions of its research are likely to be unsuitable for different economies, including China. In this regard, what deserves our in-depth discussion is: What role does the existing institutional mechanism behind the environmental economy play in the evolution of environmental economic relations? Specifically, the relationship between the government and the market, the internal government structure, the perfection of the market mechanism, etc., all of which largely influence the short-term environmental economic policies, which in turn affect the changes in the environmental economic situation. And going.
For example, in the mid- and long-term evolution of environmental economic relations, theoretical research believes that environmental protection is inherently at the level of economic development, that is, when economic development is at different stages, it will naturally appear in environmental protection policies. The corresponding characteristics, this point undoubtedly applies to the current situation in China. However, the problem is that if the path and mode of economic development itself is very sticky, it will not be able to get rid of the traditional development model and enter a certain "development trap" crisis, and then it will not be able to develop through the development of "endogenous". Need to pass to the environmental field, but the opposite is the case, that is, economic development requires the "pressure" of environmental protection policy. This means that it is necessary to start from the outside and formulate environmental protection policies to promote economic transformation and upgrading, and to traverse the "environment Kuznets curve" apex. At this time, it is particularly important to reflect the government-led environmental protection policy, but such a policy may be beyond a certain stage of economic development. This difference is reflected in the analysis of the environmental economic situation, and it is possible to draw conclusions that are different from the existing theory.

4. Analysis of current environmental and economic situation in China The Statistical Communiqué of the main economic indicators for the first half of 2017 released by the National Bureau of Statistics (July 17, 2017) shows that “the national economy is becoming more stable and the trend is more obvious”, among which there are several important characteristics. First, the economy continued to grow at a high rate. The GDP in the first half of the year was 381.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% at comparable prices. Second, the structure continued to be optimized. The added value of the first, second and third production increased by 3.5%, 6.4% and 7.7% respectively. Third, industrial production is accelerating, and the manufacturing industry is accelerating toward the middle and high-end; among them, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size has actually increased by 6.9%. The added value of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 13.1% and 11.5% respectively, which was 6.2 and 4.6 percentage points faster than the above-scale industries, accounting for 12.2% and 32.2% respectively.
In the same period, on August 14, 2017, the Ministry of Environmental Protection reported the water environment situation in the first half of 2017, pointing out that “the national water environment quality is improving, and it is more difficult to complete the 2017 water quality target in some areas”. The specific performance is that the proportion of water quality in the country's surface water is excellent (I-III) is 70.0% (2017 target is 68.3%), up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year; the proportion of water loss function (inferior to V type) is 8.8% ( The target for 2017 is 8.4%), down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. At the same time, on August 16, the Ministry of Environmental Protection released the air quality status from January to July 2017. The data shows that from January to July, the average number of days with excellent cities in 338 prefecture-level cities and above was 76.6%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year. The PM2.5 concentration was 45 μg/m3, which was flat year-on-year, and the PM10 concentration was 78 μg/m3, which was flat year-on-year.
Based on the above-mentioned recent statistics on the environment and economy, we can make some basic judgments on the current environmental economic situation.
First, in the medium and long term, the environmental economic situation is getting better. On the one hand, although the current pollution emissions continue to increase and the environmental quality continues to decline, in the high-pressure environment of environmental protection, the environmental quality has a tendency to improve in the medium and long term; on the other hand, the economy continues to grow at a high speed and continues to optimize in structure. This shows that the evolution of the relationship between the environment and the economy has not deviated from the effective range of positive interactions between the environment and the economy, and is still moving along the normal track of the environmental Kuznets curve, and the environmental economic situation is in a controllable range.
Second, in the short term, the relationship between the environment and the economy presents a trend of “economic heat and cold environment”, which is reflected in the fact that the medium- and high-speed growth of the economy has brought greater pressure on the environment, especially the rebound in industrial production has put the environment under great pressure. The pollution discharge and environmental quality have not changed substantially under the environmental protection high pressure, and the environmental quality of some indicators and some regions has continued to deteriorate.
Third, in the evolution of environmental economic relations, the government has played an absolute leading role. This has its rationality under the socialist market economic system, but it must also pay attention to and prevent risks, including whether it will cause excessive governance or Uncontrollable risks such as negative governance. In the future, we should pay more attention to the application of environmental economic policies, focus on the development and design of market governance tools, and make environmental governance truly endogenous to economic development;
Fourth, the next step is to closely follow and analyze the changes in the environmental economic situation and pay attention to several trends that may be out of the normal track, including “the environment is getting better, the economy is going down, and the magnitude is too large”. “The environment is not getting better, the economy is still old. Downward, "the environment is not getting better, the economy is going up, the structure is deteriorating", and the environmental and economic policies are adjusted in time to resolve possible risks.

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