Industrial product adjustments continued for a while, while rebar was particularly weak in industrial products. Under the dual pressure of the macroeconomic environment and weak supply and demand pattern, the short-term adjustment of the rebar spot market and the ** market will continue. In view of the cost support and the expected resumption of railway construction, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the support of 4200 yuan/ton first-line; if the macro environment again bad news or stocks do not fall back, the price may continue to explore.
The short-term warming of demand is expected to slow down the growth of the domestic economy. In 2012, the demand for the six major downstream steel industries showed signs of slowing. Therefore, the demand for steel products in 2012 will be weak overall.
The real estate data related to rebar demand is not optimistic: In March alone, real estate started a new construction of 199 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, indicating that new construction has entered negative growth. In terms of construction area, the accumulated construction area in January-March was 4.09 billion square meters. In meters, the cumulative growth rate was 25% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly declining. Moreover, the overall capacity of affordable housing will decline by 30% in 2012, so real estate will remain sluggish.
In the short term, the pace of steel demand recovery is still slow and difficult. The main reasons are: First, the overall slowdown in demand in 2012 has led to a clear mismatch between total demand and supply. Second, although projects such as infrastructure projects are expected to be accelerated, However, in the short term, the demand for rebar has not yet been effectively promoted, and the real estate and affordable housing starts are still not optimistic. Therefore, the short-term market demand is insufficient, it is difficult to support short-term steel prices; Third, when the market is not good, terminal enthusiasm is not Strong, traders are also relatively cautious about the market outlook. Therefore, they all adopt strategies to reduce inventory, or follow the strategy of buying and using, it is difficult to form a concentrated release. Therefore, the overall demand remains tepid.
The rapid expansion of production was affected by the gradual recovery of demand after the year. The spot steel prices have recently rebounded. The steel mills have started to increase prices from the beginning of March and the recent profits of steel mills have rapidly recovered. At present, according to estimates, the average cost per ton of steel is estimated to be around 4,100 yuan/ton, so the profit is about 200 yuan/ton. With the stimulation of profits, the output of steel mills has expanded rapidly. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first half of April, the national output of crude steel was estimated to be 2.0308 million tons, which was a 7.45% increase from the previous period, surpassing 201.80 million tons in late June last year and setting a record high.
Destocking process is slow The recent rebound in steel demand is clearly insufficient, and the recovery of supply has added to the already weak market. Such rapid production growth has weakened the supply and demand pattern again, which has inhibited the upside of steel prices.
Inventory is a timely reflection of the supply and demand pattern. As can be seen from the inventory data, as of last Friday (April 20th), domestic steel stocks in major cities were as follows: 2.207 million tons of wire rods, a decrease of 147,900 tons compared to the beginning of April; and rebars of 778.73 million. t, a decrease of 42.91 million tons from the beginning of April. The total inventory of the two was 9.985 million tons. It began to decline for seven consecutive weeks at the beginning of March, but it still exceeded the inventory level of the same period of last year (the combined total of thread and wire stocks was 8.469 million tons on April 22, 2011). Overall, the destocking efforts were weaker than in previous years, and the inventory decline in April 2012 was lower than the 98.21 million tons in the same period of last year, and the steel price pressure continued to decrease.
The short-term warming of demand is expected to slow down the growth of the domestic economy. In 2012, the demand for the six major downstream steel industries showed signs of slowing. Therefore, the demand for steel products in 2012 will be weak overall.
The real estate data related to rebar demand is not optimistic: In March alone, real estate started a new construction of 199 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, indicating that new construction has entered negative growth. In terms of construction area, the accumulated construction area in January-March was 4.09 billion square meters. In meters, the cumulative growth rate was 25% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly declining. Moreover, the overall capacity of affordable housing will decline by 30% in 2012, so real estate will remain sluggish.
In the short term, the pace of steel demand recovery is still slow and difficult. The main reasons are: First, the overall slowdown in demand in 2012 has led to a clear mismatch between total demand and supply. Second, although projects such as infrastructure projects are expected to be accelerated, However, in the short term, the demand for rebar has not yet been effectively promoted, and the real estate and affordable housing starts are still not optimistic. Therefore, the short-term market demand is insufficient, it is difficult to support short-term steel prices; Third, when the market is not good, terminal enthusiasm is not Strong, traders are also relatively cautious about the market outlook. Therefore, they all adopt strategies to reduce inventory, or follow the strategy of buying and using, it is difficult to form a concentrated release. Therefore, the overall demand remains tepid.
The rapid expansion of production was affected by the gradual recovery of demand after the year. The spot steel prices have recently rebounded. The steel mills have started to increase prices from the beginning of March and the recent profits of steel mills have rapidly recovered. At present, according to estimates, the average cost per ton of steel is estimated to be around 4,100 yuan/ton, so the profit is about 200 yuan/ton. With the stimulation of profits, the output of steel mills has expanded rapidly. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first half of April, the national output of crude steel was estimated to be 2.0308 million tons, which was a 7.45% increase from the previous period, surpassing 201.80 million tons in late June last year and setting a record high.
Destocking process is slow The recent rebound in steel demand is clearly insufficient, and the recovery of supply has added to the already weak market. Such rapid production growth has weakened the supply and demand pattern again, which has inhibited the upside of steel prices.
Inventory is a timely reflection of the supply and demand pattern. As can be seen from the inventory data, as of last Friday (April 20th), domestic steel stocks in major cities were as follows: 2.207 million tons of wire rods, a decrease of 147,900 tons compared to the beginning of April; and rebars of 778.73 million. t, a decrease of 42.91 million tons from the beginning of April. The total inventory of the two was 9.985 million tons. It began to decline for seven consecutive weeks at the beginning of March, but it still exceeded the inventory level of the same period of last year (the combined total of thread and wire stocks was 8.469 million tons on April 22, 2011). Overall, the destocking efforts were weaker than in previous years, and the inventory decline in April 2012 was lower than the 98.21 million tons in the same period of last year, and the steel price pressure continued to decrease.
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