2012 Global Steel Price Trend Analysis

In 2011, the global steel production capacity exceeded 493 million tons. In 2011, the global steelmaking capacity was 1.976 billion tons. According to the WSA forecast, the global crude steel consumption in 2012 increased by 5.4% to 1.556 billion tons. Then, based on the 2011 steelmaking capacity, the steelmaking capacity and actual production in 2012 will be calculated. There is still a difference of 420 million tons between them. Global steelmaking capacity will continue to grow in the coming years. The OECD (OECD) estimates that global steelmaking capacity will increase by 147.7 million tons from 2011 to 2014, reaching 2.125 billion tons. In the coming years, China will benefit from China's closure of some backward and inefficient production capacity, and the growth rate of steelmaking capacity will slow down. India's steelmaking capacity has accelerated to expand, and capacity expansion in the Middle East, Latin America and the Commonwealth of Independent States has also been rapid.

The increase in iron ore capacity in 2012 will curb its price action. With the stimulation of high profits by iron ore suppliers headed by the three major mines, the pace of mining and expansion has continued, and the ore production capacity has experienced an explosive growth, and the tight global supply of iron ore is expected to reverse. It is expected that the global iron ore production and exports will grow rapidly in the next five years. In 2012, global iron ore production will reach 2.28 billion tons, and by 2015 it will reach 2.7 billion tons. In 2012, the supply and demand of iron ore in the world remained basically balanced and the supply was slightly greater than the demand. Among the three major mines, their iron ore production capacity is expected to be around 530 million tons in 2012, an increase of 85 million tons from 2011. It is expected that the supply of iron ore will be reversed in 2014 or 2015. By then, the global mine monopoly will be reduced, competition will intensify, and iron ore prices will decline sharply.

In 2012, the possibility of a slight upward trend in the steel market will continue to fluctuate. In view of the above-mentioned complex steel industry situation in 2012, the 2012 steel market is likely to fluctuate at a later stage. Compared with the second half of last year, the economic environment improved in 2012, and steel prices also rose slightly in the first quarter. However, the global uncertainties are still relatively high, as well as the limited raw material prices, overcapacity, and weakening demand. Under the negative factors, the probability of a reversal in steel prices is very high in the later period.

The slowdown in global economic growth has dampened the momentum of the rising steel market, but we do not need to be overly pessimistic. In 2012, emerging countries such as India, Russia, Brazil, and the Middle East will continue to maintain their steel production despite the economic uncertainty. Growth, especially India's domestic steel demand outlook is optimistic. It is expected that the country will perform better than other countries; US steel consumption will maintain a good growth rate in 2012. As a whole, the overall trend of the steel market in 2012 will be relatively weak overall, and the momentum of sharp upward and downward movements will be insufficient. In the second half of the year, the loose demand for Chinese policies improves, and the steel industry is expected to improve. The global steel market is also expected to fluctuate. Upside, but significant improvement in the global steel market is expected to wait until 2013.