Interpretation of manufacturing PMI in November: some traditional industries have weakened their expansion

According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index and the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index were released today in November 2017. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the data as saying that China's manufacturing industry continued to maintain a steady and rising development trend, with balanced growth in both ends of supply and demand, and industrial restructuring continued to advance; non-manufacturing continued steady and rapid growth. The situation has accelerated, and the service industry has maintained a stable expansion, and the construction industry has improved significantly. On the 30th, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained. First, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose steadily in November. The manufacturing PMI was 51.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the annual average of 0.2 percentage points. The manufacturing industry continued to maintain a stable and rising development trend. The main features of this month: First, the two sides of the supply and demand have balanced growth, and the market vitality has been further enhanced. The production index and the new order index were 54.3% and 53.6%, up 0.9 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month. At the same time as the expansion of production and market demand accelerated, the company's purchasing intention increased, and the purchasing volume index was 53.5%, rising to the second highest point in the year. Second, the industrial restructuring has continued to advance, and new and old kinetic energy has been accelerated. The PMI of equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 52.9%, 53.2% and 53.1%, respectively, which continued to be higher than the overall level of manufacturing, and the leading role in economic growth continued to increase. Third, with the continuous deepening of structural reforms on the supply side and the recovery of the global economy, imports and exports have grown steadily. The new export order index and import index were 50.8% and 51.0%, respectively, both up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and manufacturing foreign trade maintained a steady recovery. Fourth, the price increase continued to slow down. The main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index were 59.8% and 53.8%, respectively, both of which fell for two consecutive months. The survey results show that this month's oil processing and coking industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry PMI are located in the contraction interval, and lower than the same period last year, indicating that some traditional industry expansion momentum has weakened, The pace of enterprise transformation and upgrading needs to be further accelerated. In terms of the size of the enterprise, the PMI of large enterprises was 52.9%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, but it was still higher than the annual average level and continued to operate smoothly in the expansion range. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.5%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and returning to the critical point. The PMI of small enterprises was 49.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and reaching the critical point, indicating that the business environment of SMEs has further improved. Second, the non-manufacturing business activity index was running at a high level in November, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and higher than the annual average of 0.3 percentage points. Non-manufacturing continued to grow steadily and rapidly. The situation has accelerated. The service industry maintained a stable expansion. The business activity index of the service industry was 53.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and it was located in the boom zone of 53.5% for three consecutive months. As the growth rate of the manufacturing industry accelerated, the index of business activity in the productive service industry, which was highly correlated with the real economy, rose to 61.7%, the highest point of the year. From the perspective of the industry, under the influence of the general trend of consumption upgrade and the concept of “new retail”, and the impact of “Double Eleven” promotion activities, wholesale and retail, Internet software information technology services, postal express, loading and unloading and warehousing industries The total business volume achieved rapid growth, and the business activity index was significantly higher than the overall level of the service industry. Affected by transportation structure adjustment and real estate regulation, the business activity index of road transportation, accommodation, catering, real estate and other industries is below the critical point. The construction industry has improved significantly. The index of business activity in the construction industry was 61.4%, up 2.9 percentage points from the previous month and rising to a high level of 60.0%. In terms of market demand and expectations, the new order index and business activity expectation index were 55.1% and 65.6%, respectively, higher than 1.0 and 2.4 percentage points last month. The construction industry demand grew steadily, production growth accelerated, and the company's future market expectations it is good.

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