Highlights in the 2015 Internet Trend Report

Outline of the 2015 Internet Trend Report

1. First, the biggest change in 20 years is people, with Internet users growing from 35 million/0.6% in 1995 to 2.8 billion/39% in 2014. Among the 2.8 billion Internet users, 23% are in China, 28% in Asia outside China, 19% in Europe, 10% in the US, and 21% in the rest. Among them, India is the country with the largest number of new users, with the greatest potential.

Correspondingly, the Internet industry has also experienced tremendous growth. In 1995, the largest Internet company was Netscape, with a market value of 5.4 billion US dollars, and Apple second with only 3.9 billion. The top 15 companies added up to more than 10 billion. After 20 years, Apple's market value has reached more than 700 billion, and four Chinese companies have appeared in the top 15 with a total market capitalization of more than 2.4 trillion. If you count the top 20, there are 6 in China (Ali, Tencent, Baidu, Jingdong, NetEase, Vipshop), 11 in the US, 2 in Japan, and 1 in Korea.

However, the growth of Internet users has slowed down or even stagnated. The growth of mobile users, although better, is slowing down. The trend in traffic is similar.

In addition to quantity and scale, changes in generational changes are more important. The younger generation has become the dominant player.

The impact of the Internet on all walks of life, consumer and corporate penetration rate is very high (Chinese companies should not be so high), but security, military, medical, education, especially the government, is still far away.

2. In terms of advertising, mobile is the only one with great potential. And mobile advertising can play a lot of new tricks: video, multi-picture, location-based, direct purchase button and more. And what's even more interesting is the higher conversion rate of ads on the vertical screen. And the proportion of time people spend on vertical screens on mobile devices is getting higher and higher.

3. Next, I switched to mobile chat software. Meeker noticed that various chat softwares led by WeChat are developing into platform/cross-platform operating systems, connecting more and more scene-based services (in this regard, WeChat is much ahead of foreign counterparts). ). As I said on Weibo, WeChat has now become Windows of the year. More and more people change their mobile phones in the future because they are not moving.

The chat software itself is very diverse (geographic, scene, age level), allowing many applications to grow at the same time.

At the same time, the notification push system has also become a new key entry point, especially on devices such as watches.

This presentation presents a very critical point, chat software + notifications = the key entry layer for all apps.

4. In the content industry: more and more user-generated/edited, the traditional middle layer disappeared. Whether it's video, news, articles, pictures, music... The new generation will come along, and young people aged 12-24 are trend leaders. They prefer graphics and video, they prefer mobile phones, 87% of people never leave their mobile phones, they prefer to take photos, make videos, they prefer to share on social platforms, and they are more accustomed to what they want. .

5. Regarding China, the special mentions are:

1) Weibo and WeChat are highly active, and Weibo and friends circle have become the largest media for information dissemination.

2) WeChat has moved many traditional government services online.

3) The rise of social e-commerce.

4) Information-based website services are sinking.

5) The merger of giants accelerates the precipitation and rationalization of the market.

6) The low-divided (non-profit) mechanism of Taobao and Meituan helps the domestic related market to surpass the United States.

7) If China has become the next US, then India seems likely to be the next China.

8) The report did not mention too much of the wave of domestic traditional industries being transformed by the Internet.

Related reading: About Mary Meeker and Internet Trend Report

When it comes to Mary Meeker, I can't help but talk about the technology stock bubble at the end of the last century and the competition between Wall Street investment banks. Mary Meeker, a well-packaged ace analyst at Morgan Stanley, almost dominated the issuance of technology stocks and the rise and fall of stock prices at that time. There is even a saying that "a network stock only has Mary of Morgan Stanley." Mick’s consent can only appear on Wall Street.” "Barron's" honors Mary Meeker as "the Queen of the Internet." In the online stock underwriting business, Meeker helped Morgan Stanley to compete with investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank. She also said, "My biggest value is to help Morgan Stanley win the best network IPO business."

In 1995, Meeker began to publish the "Internet Report", which became the most important indicator of investment in online stocks and was regarded as the "Bible of the Bubble Age."

At the end of the last century, there was another star analyst named Meeker, Merrill Lynch's Henry Blodget, who was well-known for his prediction that Amazon's stock price would exceed $400, and was therefore ridiculed by Merrill Lynch. However, this buddy is relatively backward. He has not joined Merrill Lynch for a long time, and the technology stock bubble has begun to burst. In 2001, Blodget was dismissed by Merrill. Soon he was deeply involved in fraudulent litigation and became a scapegoat for Wall Street greed. Meeker's situation is much better. After the technology stock bubble burst, Meeker became the "female queen" and also faced fraud charges. Unlike Merrill's abandonment of Blodget, Morgan Stanley supported Meeker and was suspected of destroying all private e-mail evidence during the bubble period, successfully helping Meeker survive the storm.

For a story about Wall Street analysts, read another famous analyst, Andy Kessler's book, The Meat of Wall Street, which includes a description of Meeker and Blodget, which is very lively. Kessler is also the author of the book Manipulating Money.

In 2004, Meeker returned, helping Morgan Stanley win the underwriting of Google IPO with a close personal relationship with Google's two founders, Brin and Page. However, this is still behind the scenes. The real sign of Meeker's comeback is the 217-page China Internet Report, which was the first song sung by Wall Street for the entire Chinese Internet economy. Meeker, who came back, said: "I decided not to hide and hide." After that, Meeker turned his attention to the mobile Internet. In 2010, Meeker moved to Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, the largest US venture capital firm, to become a partner at KPCB.

Meeker can become a star analyst, on the one hand thanks to the unstoppable trend of the Internet, on the other hand, thanks to her deep industry resources and contacts, as well as her hard work. She personally participated in visiting and researching a large number of Internet companies. She maintains close personal relationships with the founders of many Internet companies. At the same time, she also rejected many companies' IPO underwriting requests, and the number of companies she rejected was far more than the companies she praised. This makes her Internet analysis and forecasting more credible.

Mary Meeker

2015 Internet Trend Report

Further reading: Full text of the 2015 Internet Trend Report : Click to read