Four major banks have seen a rebound in credit supply in May

On May 19th, the credit rate of the four major banks remained stable. According to Shenyin Wanguo's research, as of May 19, the four major banks put RMB 153 billion in credit, including RMB 80 billion in last week, and Shen Wan maintained that the overall credit supply of financial institutions in May rose back to about 900 billion yuan.

According to statistics from Shenwan, statistics show that the amount of credit put on May 19 is higher than that of the same period in April, about 30%, but slightly lower than the same period in January and March. It is due to Shenwan’s expectation that credit supply in May will rebound to 900 billion yuan. One of the bases for judging the yuan. According to the statistics of the Central Bank, the number of newly added financial institutions in January and March surpassed trillion yuan, and the amount of credit provided in April was 729.2 billion yuan.

However, the rebound in credit availability is hardly a good indicator of the real economy. According to a banker's report to the Shanghai Daily, the proportion of the current bills has increased, and mid- to long-term investment has not improved, especially the credit demand of the manufacturing industry is not very strong.

This is not the same as the optimism revealed by the credit allocation at the beginning of the year. In early January and mid-January, a number of banks had been warned by the central bank because of excessive credit. At the end of the month, these banks had to reduce the size of new accounts. In addition, the scale of mid- to long-term businesses in January reached 309.8 billion yuan, which is the second largest in the last two years, only after January 2011. This positive sign has caused some market participants to think that the economy is a good sign, but in the past two months the data seems to point to another side, all sorts of signs that make the market confused.

"People who want to get ** don't get **, banks that don't want ** want to give it, and structural problems are still outstanding." The above bankers describe the contradiction of current credit allocation.

In addition to the effective demand for credit, there has been no improvement in the status of deposits that have been restricted. According to Shen Wan's research, as of May 19, the deposits of the four major banks had a negative growth of 150 billion yuan, and the impact of financial deposits continued to fall by 80 billion yuan over the previous week.

The fiscal payment deadline for this month is the end of the month, and Shenwan’s estimated net turnover is about 300 billion yuan. From the perspective of the decline in deposits, the peak of payment for financial deposits will not end until the end of the month, but overall, Shen Wan It is believed that the fiscal seasonal contraction cycle has already passed halfway, and it is expected that the pressure for transfer of financial deposits will drop in June.

In addition, due to the high negative growth rate of deposits, SWS believes that the SAFE's regulatory policy may have come into effect. According to its calculations, SAFE's policies will statically receive a base currency of 210 billion yuan, and the dynamics will also suppress the inflow rate. With this effect, the increase in the share of May ** will slow down.