Spot strong bullish reunite aluminum rebounded sharply

Aluminum in the previous cycle showed a sharp rebound. Aluminum for LME rose by 3.68% to 2,535 U.S. dollars per ton, while aluminum for the 611 period of the domestic main contract increased by 4.51 percent to 20160 yuan per ton. Spot Huatong 99.7% aluminum ingot prices rose 410 yuan / ton, the spot premium of 200 yuan / ton in the vicinity, the period of rising strength shows that the long atmosphere is too strong. LME aluminum inventories fell by 11,600 tons to 693,100 tons, and Shanghai stocks dropped by 2,391 tons to 23,371 tons. The spot trade between the two places still maintains a loss of more than two thousand yuan, and the domestic price still maintains an inverted basis structure, indicating the impact of low domestic inventory on prices. Last week, the domestic alumina market price was between RMB3,000-3,350/ton, and prices continued to decline. Minmetals lowered its alumina port price from 3,500 yuan/ton to 3,350 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 150 yuan/ton. Chinalco's offer is maintained at 3,800 yuan/ton, and it is expected that there will still be a downward adjustment in the market. As alumina production is still growing, there is still a downtrend in the afternoon market. Buyers are currently buying as much as they need. According to the survey, the price of alumina is lowered to 2,500 yuan/ton, which may inspire companies to prepare a large number of warehouses. The spot of Nanhai began to strengthen last week. The adjustment of export tax rate has played a certain stimulating effect on the country’s larger aluminum production and export bases. The recent strong spot situation may continue to be maintained. Last week's data released by WBMS showed that the aluminum market gap in the first seven months of the world reached 246,000 tons, which is approximately three angels in the world, and 87,000 tons in the first six months. The output from January to July was 19.20 million tons, which was only 5% higher than the same period of 2005, and the usage was 19.4 million tons, which also increased by 5% year-on-year. According to the IAI data, global aluminum output fell by 4,000 tons to 2.015 million tons in August, and output was 2.019 million tons in July. In August, global aluminum production increased by 1,000 tons compared with the same period of last year. In August 2005, global aluminum production was 2.014 million tons. It can be seen that last week's aluminum prices have been affected by this bullish data, and the aluminum market bullish atmosphere has been condensing. According to the National Bureau of Statistics and related news, in August China's electrolytic aluminum production reached 808,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, which was in line with the growth rate in July. In August, China’s daily output of electrolytic aluminum was 26,100 tons, an increase of 3.0% from the daily output of 25,300 tons in July. In the first eight months of 2006, China’s cumulative electrolytic aluminum production was 5.894 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. Since the second half of 2006, with the sharp drop in the price of alumina, the start-up speed of idle capacity for electrolytic aluminum in China has also been accelerating, and new production will gradually respond in the coming months. It is estimated that the output of electrolytic aluminum in China will reach 9.2 million tons in 2006. Year-on-year growth of nearly 19%. Short-term bullish sentiment still exists. Last week's inventory weekly report showed that aluminum inventory decreased by 2,391 tons to 23,371 tons. The recent low inventory still has a certain supporting effect on aluminum prices, but the aluminum price should be limited in height and should be guarded against high risks. As China's aluminum smelters currently have only 80% of their production capacity in operation, alumina capacity expansion and price decline will form a long-term repression on aluminum prices, so it remains a long-term bearish market view. Import and loss balance and balance point chart Comparison of cost changes of aluminum ingots SHFE and LME aluminum price chart