Short-term steel prices or weak shocks

Last week, the total iron ore inventory in major Chinese ports saw a slight increase. As of April 12, the combined inventory across key ports reached 68.73 million tons, up by 770,000 tons or 1.13% compared to the previous week. Among these, Australian ore accounted for 45.96%, marking a monthly increase of 0.08%, while Indian ore dropped to 2.58%, down 0.25% from the prior month. Pakistani ore made up 21.66% of the total, but also fell by 0.39%. The Platts Iron Ore Index rose slightly last week, reaching $142 per ton, an increase of $6 from the previous week. Meanwhile, port inventories declined sharply again, and the share of Indian ore in the overall inventory dropped to 2.58%. With India tightening its export controls on iron ore, it's likely that Indian suppliers will gradually reduce their presence in the Chinese market this year. On the other hand, the port import market didn’t see a significant volume increase, with mainstream resource shipments remaining slow. However, some second-tier steel mills’ procurement activities led to a slight rise in inquiries for non-mainstream resources. The price increase in imported ore is more of a ripple effect caused by port operators managing their own stock levels. Currently, steel mills are cautious about importing ore due to weak profitability, which limits their willingness to pay higher prices. Nevertheless, the limited availability of port resources still gives port companies an upper hand in negotiations. It’s expected that imported ore prices will remain stable or even strengthen slightly this week, with port inventories continuing to rise marginally. Coke prices performed weakly last week, with port stocks increasing slightly. At Tianjin Port, coke inventory rose to 2.16 million tons, up 0.93% from the previous week. In Lianyungang, the inventory climbed to 25.3 million tons, a 5.42% increase. Rizhao Port saw a 37.07% jump in coke stocks. With the stabilization of finished product prices, pressure on coke prices eased slightly, and the recent drop in coking coal prices further reduced cost pressures on coke producers. This led to a slight improvement in the profitability of coking enterprises. However, steel mills remained hesitant in purchasing coke, and some coke producers had to lower prices to clear warehouses. Given the rising port inventory, coke prices are expected to remain weak this week, though some steel mills may cause a small decline in port stocks. Domestic steel prices fluctuated last week, and total social steel inventories decreased slightly. As of April 12, China’s total steel inventory fell by 1.45% to 21.213 million tons. Specifically, rebar inventory dropped to 10.278 million tons, down 2.0% from the previous week; wire rod inventory fell to 2.954 million tons, a decrease of 3.1%; hot-rolled coil increased slightly to 4.784 million tons, up 0.8%; cold-rolled sheet dropped to 1.679 million tons, down 0.7%; and medium plate fell to 1.618 million tons, a 1.2% decline. At the terminal sites, procurement volumes increased slightly, and middlemen avoided raising prices, instead adopting a cautious approach. As a result, rebar and wire stocks declined further. Additionally, maintenance and production restrictions at some medium plate plants reduced inventory levels. Meanwhile, the arrival of high-priced resources and sluggish shipments caused fluctuations in hot-rolled coil stocks. Despite four consecutive weeks of declining steel stocks, the overall inventory level remains high. The sharp drop in steel prices on Friday highlighted the limited demand for heavy materials. It is expected that finished product prices will move within a narrow range after a slight pullback, while steel inventories may continue to fall.

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