Cobalt prices are flat and expect CDI to indicate the direction of development

Abstract The MB cobalt prices remained stable overnight, as market participants are closely watching the upcoming CDI meeting in Shanghai next week to gauge the future direction of the cobalt industry. Currently, low-grade cobalt is trading at $12.50–14/lb, while high-grade cobalt is priced between $12.90–14.10/lb. This week’s trading activity has been limited, with most players waiting for clarity from the CDI event. Market sentiment remains cautious, with many participants expecting a period of consolidation in prices. However, the outlook for the coming weeks is still uncertain, and no clear consensus has emerged on the next move. One key factor influencing the market is the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export policies on cobalt concentrates and intermediates. While some believe the proposed export ban may be delayed or revised, others are concerned about the potential impact on global supply chains. Negotiations over the export restrictions continue, with many hoping that the government will instead focus on regulating export taxes rather than imposing a full ban. This would help maintain stability in the market while allowing continued trade flows. A local manufacturer noted that it's hard to predict how the DRC will implement any such ban, especially given the strong demand for cobalt in China. If a ban were enforced, it could drastically alter the industry landscape. For example, if Chinese buyers shift toward purchasing refined cobalt metal instead of concentrates, the demand for metal cobalt could surge significantly. However, some analysts caution that such a shift could also squeeze trader margins, making it harder to forecast how the market will evolve. With so many variables at play, traders and investors alike remain on edge, waiting for more clarity before making major decisions.