Review: Rubber led the decline of commodity glass performance

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Futures commodities were mostly lower in early trading today, and the decline in the afternoon increased. Among the big contracts, the decline was 2.74%, the eggs fell 1.63%, the vegetables fell 1.6%, the Shanghai zinc fell 1.59%, the Shanghai nickel fell 1.52%, the methanol fell 1.52%, the starch fell 1.32%, and Shanghai aluminum fell. 1.29%, white sugar fell 1.26%, palm oil fell 1.26%, Shanghai tin fell 1.25%, Shanghai copper fell 1.18%, Zheng cotton fell 1.17%, rebar fell 1.15%, soybean meal fell 1.12%, PP fell 1.09%. In terms of gains, the glass rose 1.33%.

According to statistics released today by the Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP growth in the third quarter was 6.9%, the lowest level in the first quarter of 2009, but this figure is better than Bloomberg’s forecast of 6.8%. In the first half of this year, China's economic growth rate was 7%, and this year's economic growth target is "about 7%."

The TRJ-CRB Global Commodity Index has fallen to a new low since 2001, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% ending at 185.13 points, followed by an oscillating and resilience rally in the post-weekly level. The price map of the TRJ-CRB index for nearly 30 years tells us that the duration below 200 points is extremely short, and we believe that this is an important price signal, or suggests that the bear market space is entering the tail.

The US dollar index rose at a high level, the weekly level weakened, the Fed’s interest rate hike was expected to cool during the year, and emerging market currencies rose sharply. Risk appetite showed signs of recovery in October. International crude oil prices have risen more than 20% from the low level and are transferred to the technology bull market. The geopolitical factors in Syria are still fermenting the price. International non-ferrous metals prices, due to Glencore's announcement of a production cut, have come out of the downtrend channel formed since the second half of the year. After the US soybean supply and demand report was exhausted, CBOT soybeans broke through the bottom finishing interval in January.

Domestic economic data is weak, and the internal market is generally weaker than the external market. Among them, especially in the black product series, coking coal and coke are difficult to grind, iron ore prices are repeatedly oscillating, and the center of gravity of plastics and polypropylene has signs of downward movement. Under the leadership of industrial factors, the trend of coal series, corn, corn starch, eggs and other varieties fell sharply. Driven by structural factors, palm oil, soybean oil and other long-term trends are relatively smooth, and the apes are in a volatile market.

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