Foreign media: China may quietly target the RMB depreciation by 20%

Abstract After the Chinese government unexpectedly lowered the RMB exchange rate after multiple interest rate cuts were ineffective, Beijing said that the exchange rate was reduced to a one-time effort to eliminate market chaos. Analysts said that the ultimate goal of the People’s Bank of China may be a 10% depreciation of the yuan or...
After the Chinese government unexpectedly cut the RMB exchange rate after repeated invalidation of interest rates, Beijing said that the exchange rate was reduced to a one-time effort to eliminate market chaos.

Analysts said that the ultimate goal of the People's Bank of China may be that the yuan depreciated by 10% or more, once to stimulate exports. But some official statements are the opposite.

Bloomberg revealed on Tuesday that some Chinese professional institutions expect the dollar to rise to 7 at the end of the year.

According to the study, the study further concluded that the dollar-denominated exchange rate will rise to 8 before the end of 2016. These projections suggest that the RMB will depreciate more than 8% by December 31 this year and depreciate by more than 20% by the end of 2016. This view has been greatly depreciated by the renminbi this month, and analysts predict that the exchange rate will be 6.5 before the end of the year.

However, the exchange rate indicated by the study is not a government goal. It only reflects the view that the Chinese government may allow the renminbi to depreciate further. The devaluation of the renminbi on August 11-12 is close to 3%. Beijing time August 12 pm 2 At 28 points, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was quoted at 6.4135. After that, it was basically stable for a week and did not fall further.

Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank, said that the depreciation of the exchange rate of 7 at the end of the year is not entirely impossible for the Chinese government. According to China's balance of payments situation, a certain degree of devaluation is acceptable, but this may put pressure on external debt repayment and capital outflow.

The reference exchange rate used by the research institutions was used for economic evaluation and forecasting, and the People's Bank of China did not respond to this.

If the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is 7, it means that the RMB will depreciate more than 8% from the level of Tuesday (August 25). In the RMB briefing on August 13, Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that China's claim that the yuan would depreciate by 10% to stimulate exports is completely "nonsense."

Yes, this is like the fact that China's easing policy (QE) does not exist. It is purely nonsense. Billions of dollars have been transferred from CSF to sovereign wealth funds, so the Chinese central bank can continue to say that the balance sheet has not expanded.

Under normal circumstances, the sharp depreciation of the currency can not only be used to boost exports, but also to ease the need for currency to continue to depreciate. Maba Hau, a French bank, said on Monday that the actual situation is that the central bank has used the central parity of the yuan to fix the spot exchange rate. Now, the opposite is true. Therefore, the role of the market in determining the exchange rate in the short term is greatly Zoomed in. This explains why the continued loss of foreign exchange reserves has led to a massive asset liquidity crisis that has forced the Chinese central bank to inject more liquidity and cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR).

China's reduction of RRR will not boost aggregate demand, but only delay the response to foreign exchange intervention. The Chinese government will continue to take such measures, but ironically, the continuous depreciation of the RMB caused by these measures will only accelerate capital outflows. Then the government will intervene again. The more times the Chinese government intervenes to stabilize finance and the economy, the more it needs to stabilize finance and the economy until the government and the market win or if something completely collapses.

In the end, the cost of RMB exchange rate intervention is getting bigger and bigger, and the expanded easing policy will only make it even more so. In this case, a free floating monetary policy may be a better choice. If this is the case, then the renminbi will depreciate more by the end of the year, but the question is how many problems will arise in the process. The quote from the French bank is:

If the Chinese central bank wants a stable exchange rate once and for all, then there are only two methods, that is, full foreign exchange flexibility or zero foreign exchange flexibility. At present, the latter is increasingly undesirable because capital accounts are increasingly open. Therefore, the People's Bank of China can only continue to sell foreign exchange reserves until it is completely let go.

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(1) Galvanized steel wire: diameter 2.0MM-4.0MM, tensile strength >350Mpa, hot dipped
galvanized zinc coating:35-50g/m2    high zinc:240g / m2.
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2.Gabion Process:
wire drawing---galvanized--- galvanized after weaving or galvanized before weaving. 
3.Gabion Box sizes:                                                         

Gabion Size(m)

 Mesh Model

 

8x10

6x8

Length

Width

Height



 

Mesh wire diameter

Gal. weight

Mesh wire diameter

Gal. weight

2m

1m

1m

2.7mm

>245g/m2

2.0mm

>215g/m2

3m

1m

1m

Selvedge wire diameter

Gal. weight

Selvedge wire diameter

Gal. weight

4m

1m

1m

3.4mm

>265g/m2

2.7mm

>245g/m2

6m

1m

1m

Lacing wire 2.7mm

Lacing wire 2.0mm

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4)Water and soil protection
gabion basket






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