Abstract At the Boao Forum for Asian Economics in March 2015, the sub-forum held on the afternoon of the 27th - "Commodities: The end of the super bull market? "It is very attractive to the attention of the media in various countries." Experts said: The decline in commodity prices is mainly based on...
At the Boao Forum for Asian Economics in March 2015, the sub-forum held on the afternoon of the 27th - "Commodities: The end of the super bull market? "It is very attractive to the attention of the media in various countries." Experts said: The decline in commodity prices is mainly based on the relationship between supply and demand. Due to the combination of the global economic slowdown, the relevant prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. In fact, the savvy international investment bank began divesting its commodities business a few years ago: Goldman Sachs shut down its non-ferrous metals trading business after being sued for controlling global aluminum prices; Morgan Stanley sold most of its oil trading business to Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft; Deutsche Bank officially announced the withdrawal of energy, agricultural products, coal and iron ore transactions; Bank of America Merrill Lynch closed the European power and gas sales department; JP Morgan Chase sold the physical assets of commodities to Mercuria and Trading business; Barclays Bank also said it will withdraw from most of its commodities business...
Since the Fed began to reduce its QE scale last year, commodities have gradually entered a bear market, especially copper, crude oil and gold. Goldman Sachs believes that the price of metals and minerals, including steel, cement and copper, will see a further significant decline due to the decline in the heat of China's real estate market.
The bear market does not say the bottom. From the perspective of the price trends of bulk commodities, energy and other material resources, the era of global economic material resources has gradually drifted away. OPEC, which has almost monopoly status, is unable to return to the sky, and people’s needs are deepening. And the important change is that material demand is shifting to information demand, and the growth of information demand has replaced the growth of traditional demand.
Intellectual property determines national competitiveness
Similar to the industrial revolution of the past, the current profound changes in the global economy are still based on technological innovations, and advanced technologies are bound to form exclusive patents, which in turn monopolize the market.
Apple, Microsoft, Qualcomm and other companies pay great attention to their layout in patent technology, in order to form their own dominant position in the market competition.
Japan is a resource-poor country, so they have established a core position in the intellectual property strategy. Enterprises must make a correct assessment of their intangible assets such as patent technology, organizational capabilities, customer networks and brands, and use them flexibly to achieve technical and intellectual property values. maximize.
The traditional strengths of Japanese companies are motors, electrical installations, electrical energy, audiovisual technology and semiconductors. With the development of emerging industries, especially the new energy industry, Japanese companies have stepped up their technological R&D and global patent layout in these areas. As a representative of new energy sources, the photovoltaic power generation industry is developing rapidly. There are 84,827 patent applications in the world, of which Japan accounted for 48.3%, ranking first; in the field of high-speed rail, Japan has also carried out a large number of foreign patents, which are in the United States and Europe. With more than a quarter of the patent application share; in the various technical fields of new energy vehicles, including hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicle technology, Japan has the highest number of patent applications worldwide.
As a representative industry of the new generation of information technology, the Internet of Things is called the third wave of the development of the world information industry after the computer and the Internet. The Japanese original patent application with priority from the Japanese application has 5,490 patents, and its dominant position is remarkable.
The core of the global economic competition lies in the competition of technology. Compared with Japan, China, as a manufacturing power, has far less market share due to its technological level. In the past two years, smartphones have become “new business cards†for Chinese exports, but due to the defects of intellectual property rights, new problems have also come.
In February 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it had imposed an anti-monopoly penalty of 608 million yuan on Qualcomm. On the one hand, it reflected the concerns of the relevant domestic departments on the technological monopoly of foreign companies. On the other hand, it also indicated that the competition for technical resources has become a battle for material resources. Another new battlefield.
Another case is from Lenovo. When Google bought Motorola, it bought tens of thousands of patents from the latter. When Motorola changed its name again, there were only 2,000 patents left. Most of the intangible assets were taken away, leaving only some tangible assets.
Internet resource revolution
At present, the global scale is facing an energy revolution. With the application of clean energy and the improvement of energy efficiency, there will be more variables in the future commodity prices. There are no economic factors that are more important than commodity prices, because when commodity prices rise, it shifts wealth and strength from consumers to producers, so the turning point is critical to the global economy, and it seems to be in sight. Welcome to such a moment.
At the time of the withdrawal of veteran investment banks, new large-scale traders and small and medium-sized investment banks have entered the market, and Chinese financial institutions, including ICBC and BOC International, have been active. The formation of new game rules and market structure is still waiting, but China's Internet finance has already taken the lead in the world.
In the list of top 500 Chinese companies last year, the "Internet Corps" including Jingdong Mall, Baidu and Tencent made their debut; in the world, the BAT Big Three ranked the top 10 Internet companies in the world; WeChat's monthly active users There are 468 million people, and each user uses an average of 3 hours a day... In the future, there may be more than one billion people who use the online shopping, entertainment, and financial services provided by the online platform.
Today, the number of e-commerce users, turnover, and total retail sales in China exceeds that of the United States. The development of e-commerce will accelerate industry concentration, make up for the poor foundation of traditional retail industry, and promote the improvement of household consumption. According to KPMG's report, China's e-commerce market will reach the combined size of the US, UK, Germany, Japan and France e-commerce markets by 2020.
The penetration rate of Internet applications is constantly increasing. From travel to games, music to communication, and from catering to playing, everything is online. The Internet will become the largest and fastest-growing industry in China. From 2010 to today, in just five years, there have been a number of new-generation Internet enterprise groups with a market value of more than 1 billion. New models and new technologies are emerging.
In a world of billions of smart devices connected to the world, virtualization of existing computing platforms and the ability to bring together virtually unlimited ideas through new collaboration and crowdsourcing applications that drive innovation at an unprecedented rate development of. Cloud computing and big data are leading a new wave of technology, and the big data industry has become an important production factor in comparison with physical assets and human capital.
China's economy has entered a "new normal" and it is necessary to implement an innovation-driven and economic transformation strategy. As the most market-oriented economic factor, the capital market is facing a change in service direction and focus. The traditional business model and industrial operation mode will also change. The upgrading of China's economy has brought opportunities, and controlling non-material resources is the key to improving the competitiveness of enterprises and enhancing the competitiveness of the country.
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