As China's power consumption transitions from a phase of rapid growth to steady expansion, the electricity sector is also entering a period of more stable development. However, under the growing pressures of energy security, diversification, and emission reduction, the future of coal-fired power faces significant challenges. The room for coal power expansion is expected to shrink further in the coming years.
Currently, China has an installed coal power capacity of 800 million kilowatts, with plans to increase it to 900 million kilowatts by the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan," or even beyond. Given the current slowdown in coal power development, the author argues that the pace should be further controlled. The 900 million kilowatts of coal power will not only meet immediate needs but also ensure long-term energy and electricity security. More importantly, this level of coal capacity will face increasing environmental and emission challenges, putting pressure on the country’s energy structure adjustments.
Looking at domestic demand, by 2015, total installed capacity of 1.4 billion kilowatts and annual generation of 6 trillion kilowatt-hours are expected to meet China’s electricity needs. To support clean and diversified energy use, China aims to build 530 million kilowatts of clean energy capacity by 2015, including 290 million kilowatts of hydro, 100 million of wind, 56 million of natural gas, 40 million of nuclear, and 21 million of solar power. This leaves about 900 million kilowatts for coal power. If there are major breakthroughs in energy technologies—such as unconventional gas or solar energy—the space for coal may shrink further. With the vast potential of hydropower, wind, natural gas, and solar, 900 million kilowatts of coal power could still meet China’s needs for a considerable time.
Globally, coal power accounts for around 40% of total generation. In developed countries like the U.S., Europe, and Japan, coal typically makes up about one-third of total power generation. For example, the U.S., the world’s largest coal producer, had 344 million kilowatts of coal capacity in 2011, representing about 30% of its 1.15 billion kilowatts total capacity. In contrast, China’s 900 million kilowatts of coal power constitutes nearly 70% of the country’s total installed capacity and about 80% of total generation—double the global average. As structural adjustments continue, if China reduces coal’s share to 60% of total capacity, 900 million kilowatts would correspond to 1.5 billion kilowatts of total capacity—exceeding its 2015 planning targets. In the long term, China may aim to bring this ratio down to 50%, meaning 900 million kilowatts would support a total capacity of 1.8 billion kilowatts—enough to meet even the most optimistic power plans through 2020.
China has a large-scale coal power system, extensive development bases, and strong inertia. With recent declines in coal prices, coal power revenues have improved, potentially fueling further development. In response, a cautious approach—“slowing downâ€â€”is needed to ensure sustainable energy transition.
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