Due to the huge environmental pressure, the development space for coal and electricity has further narrowed

As China's power consumption transitions from a phase of rapid growth to one of stable expansion, the electricity sector is also entering a period of gradual development. However, under the pressure of ensuring energy security, promoting energy diversification, and reducing emissions, the future of coal-fired power will face even greater challenges, limiting its growth potential. Currently, China has already built 800 million kilowatts of coal power capacity. By the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan," coal power capacity is expected to reach 900 million kilowatts or more. In light of the current slowdown in coal power development, it is crucial to regulate the pace of further expansion. The 900 million kilowatts of coal power not only meets current demand but can also ensure long-term electricity and energy security for China. More importantly, this level of coal power will face significant environmental and emission control challenges, making it difficult to sustain the current power structure without major adjustments. From a domestic demand perspective, by 2015, total installed capacity of 1.4 billion kilowatts and an annual generation of 6 trillion kilowatt-hours are expected to meet China’s electricity needs. To support a diversified and clean energy strategy, China plans to build 530 million kilowatts of clean energy capacity by 2015, including 290 million kilowatts of hydropower, 100 million kilowatts of wind power, 56 million kilowatts of natural gas, 40 million kilowatts of nuclear, and 21 million kilowatts of solar power. This leaves approximately 900 million kilowatts for coal power. If there are breakthroughs in energy technologies such as unconventional gas extraction or solar utilization, natural gas and solar power could take up more space, further reducing the room for coal. Considering the vast potential of hydropower, wind, natural gas, nuclear, and solar in China, 900 million kilowatts of coal power can still meet both present and future needs for a considerable time. Globally, coal power accounts for about 40% of total power generation. In developed countries like the U.S., Europe, and Japan, coal typically makes up around one-third of total power generation. For example, the U.S., which has the world’s largest coal reserves, had 344 million kilowatts of coal capacity in 2011, representing about 30% of its 1.15 billion kilowatts of total installed capacity. In contrast, China’s 900 million kilowatts of coal power accounts for nearly 70% of its total installed capacity and about 80% of total power generation—more than double the global average. As structural adjustments continue, if China reduces the share of coal power to 60% of total installed capacity, 900 million kilowatts would correspond to a total of 1.5 billion kilowatts—exceeding the 2015 power planning targets. In the long term, China may aim to reduce coal’s share to 50%, meaning 900 million kilowatts would support a total capacity of 1.8 billion kilowatts—enough to meet even the most optimistic power demand forecasts before 2020. China has a large-scale coal power system with extensive development bases and strong inertia. Due to recent declines in coal prices, coal power revenues have improved, increasing the temptation to expand coal capacity. In response, it is essential to adopt a slower, more cautious approach.

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