Abstract July 24-25, 2015 China Machine Tool Industry Association Chairman Meeting was held in Baoji. The meeting was chaired by the China Machine Tool Industry Association Rotating Chairman and Chairman of Qinchuan Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. Long Xingyuan, and the rotating director Jinan II Machine Tool Group Limited...
On July 24-25, the 2015 China Machine Tool Industry Association Chairman's Meeting was held in Baoji. The meeting was chaired by the China Machine Tool Industry Association's rotating director and the chairman of Qinchuan Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. Long Xingyuan, and the rotating director Jinan No. 2 Machine Tool Zhang Zhigang, Chairman of the Group Co., Ltd. (the chairman of the board of directors on July 26), Chairman of the Board of Directors of Beijing Beiyi Machine Tool Co., Ltd., Wang Xu, and the chairman of the board of directors and vice president of the board of directors attended the event. meeting. At the meeting, Chen Huiren, executive vice president and secretary general of China Machine Tool Industry Association, made a report on “Characteristics of Economic Operation and Market Changeâ€. Chen Huiren analyzed and judged the status quo of the industry through specific and accurate data analysis, and presented the participants with a worthwhile Concerned about the latest market changes, and made a basic estimate of the industry development trend this year and next.
This round of machine tool industry started in the second half of 2011 and has been in full for four years. What changes have occurred in the status quo of the industry in these four years? What characteristics are presented? To this end, Chen Huiren summarized four salient features.
Industry operation presents four characteristics
Feature 1 : The main body of the industry is still in the downside, and the downward pressure is further increased. According to the statistics of China Machine Tool Industry Association, whether it is the whole industry or subdivided into metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools and measuring tools sub-sectors, the cumulative value of major economic indicators in the first five months of this year, that is, the main business income and The total profit is falling. The main business income of the whole industry decreased by 4.3%, the profit decreased by 17.8%, the inventory increased by 3.5%, and the order decreased by 5.9%. The total profit of Jinchee Machine Tool decreased the most. The only bright spot in the industry was the increase in orders for metal forming machine tools.
Chen Huiren emphasized that it is particularly noteworthy that several sub-sectors have changed significantly, and some sub-sectors that have shown strong performance have shown a downward trend. For example, the relatively stable tool industry in the past few years began to show a downward trend in the first half of this year; in addition, the metal forming machine tools that have been showing resistance against decline began to decline in the first half of this year.
Feature 2: The total amount of demand in the industry has been significantly reduced, and the market changes in the demand structure have been significantly improved. At the beginning of the industry downturn in 2011, the industry development showed a trend of decreasing total demand and upgrading the structure of demand. Now, this feature is becoming more and more obvious. According to the statistics of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, from 2011 to 2014, the total amount of China's machine tool consumer market has been declining. At the same time as the total volume declines, the demand structure has significantly increased.
Chen Huiren concluded that the demand upgrade is mainly reflected in three aspects, namely, automation, customization, and shift upgrade. Taking the data of a processing center in a user industry for 4 years as an example, the proportion of processing centers in the industry below 4 axes in the import processing center has decreased year by year, from 51% in 2011 to 22.2% in 2014. On the one hand, it reflects the upgrading of user demand in the industry. On the other hand, it also shows that the domestic processing center has made rapid progress and has achieved substitution to some extent.
Feature 3 : Multi-faceted industrial structure differentiation begins to emerge. Over the years, the industry has always had the idea of ​​state-owned, private, and foreign investment, but this pattern has been quietly broken. According to the National Bureau of Statistics and Customs data, the main body composition of the whole industry in 2014, the proportion of the main business income of the private enterprises has been close to 80%, the profit ratio is over 80%, the export proportion is close to 60%, and the proportion of private enterprises is up. 80%. Looking at the data changes from 2011 to 2014, whether it is the whole industry, or the metal processing and tool measuring sub-sectors, the main business income, total profit and number of enterprises of state-owned enterprises have shown a sharp decline, and foreign-invested enterprises are also declining. However, the magnitude is small, and individual indicators have risen slightly. In the same period, private enterprises have shown a significant upward trend in both main operating income and total profit and number of enterprises.
The data shows that the private economy is already the absolute main body of the machine tool industry, and both state and foreign investment have their own lengths. It can be seen that in the economic downturn, it is not conducive to the development of the state-owned system. Chen Huiren concluded that in the past four years, the two groups have suffered the most. One is a large enterprise that has long dominated the market, and the other is a small and micro enterprise at the lowest end of the industry value chain. At the same time, some private enterprises have risen against the trend, showing Strong growth strength, this change is structural.
In addition, the structural differentiation of the industry is multifaceted. According to the statistics of the changes in the main body composition of Jinjia machine tools from 2011-2014 of China Machine Tool Industry Association, in 2012, the output and growth rate of gold cut and forming began to differentiate significantly, and the formation was significantly better than gold cut. In addition, the comparison of the main indicators of Jinchee Machine Tool in 2014 and 2011, regardless of the main income or total profit, has dropped significantly, while the main business income of forming machine tools has decreased little, and the total profit decline is far less than that of Jinchee Machine Tool. .
Feature 4 : Positive changes in the process of industry transformation adjustment. A direct performance is that the numerical control rate of the industry has been greatly improved. In 2011, the numerical control rate of China's machine tool output was 64.2%, and in 2014 it reached 75.3%.
In addition, the market structure has also undergone significant changes. In 2011, the export market accounted for 8.5% of the overall market, and in 2014 this proportion rose to 13.9%. In addition to the positive changes in this industrial structure, Chen Huiren emphasized that the industry users' awareness of the industry is generally enhanced, and the ability to provide services for key service areas is constantly increasing. These are positive signals in the industry down range.
Inflectional changes worthy of attention
Some of the changes in the machine tool market are cyclical, but some are inflectional. Chen Huiren believes: First of all, the rapid development of the heavy chemical industry in China's economy has already come to an end, and has had a significant impact on the machine tool market, especially on the heavy machine tool market. Second, the structural changes in the country's economic development momentum have also had an important impact on the Chinese machine tool consumer market. Since 2011, consumption has exceeded investment for four consecutive years and has become the first driving force. For example, mobile phones, benefiting from the popularity of the smart phone market, the vertical processing center market has risen against the trend in the past two years. Like cars, the passenger car market for consumption is clearly superior to the commercial vehicle market for investment. These changes have shown that with the gradual adjustment of China's economic structure, the driving force for the formation of consumer goods will become stronger and stronger.
Chen Huiren stressed that there are two changes in the user market in the first half of this year that need attention. First, the production and sales volume of the automobile market dropped significantly. In the first half of the year, automobile production increased by 2.6%, down 6.9 percentage points, sales volume increased by 1.4%, and dropped by 7 percentage points. Especially in June, production and sales fell double. The automobile has always been a stable user market for the machine tool industry. This year's downturn has not been seen for many years. Second, the mobile phone market has also begun to fall. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the mobile phone market in the first quarter of this year was negative growth, down 13.6% year-on-year.
Most stable judgments on future trends
On July 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. China’s GDP growth in the first half of the year was 7%. This evaluation is a successful stance of the Chinese economy. Chen Huiren pointed out that there are different views on the future trend of the industry. The optimistic view is that the economy is climbing from the bottom. The steady view is that this year and next year is a difficult period under the new normal. The economy may bottom out in the middle of next year and then slowly rise. .
In fact, the outstanding problem of China's economic development is still structural imbalance. The concrete manifestation is that economic resources are “real†to “virtualâ€. Only by reversing this situation, the economic recovery will have a basis. This reversal takes time and cannot be accomplished overnight. Based on this judgment, Chen Huiren's basic estimate for the industry this year and next is: First, the basic characteristics and trends of China's machine tool consumer market will be more obvious; second, the industry will also bear greater downward pressure; third, The market structure and the structural differentiation of corporate competition will show an improvement. Fourth, the positive actions of the government and enterprises will effectively hedge the downward pressure.
In addition, Shao Qin, a senior consultant of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, made a description of the “China Machine Tool 2020 (Discussion Draft)â€. At the same time, the meeting also submitted a working proposal on the implementation of the "China Machine Tool Industry Association Standards".
The meeting also specially invited Wang Zhijun, Chairman of Ruixing Tongtai (Beijing) Management Consulting Co., Ltd. to give a special lecture - "Internet + O2O + refined management - the inevitable choice for innovation and effective breakthrough of machine tool industry".
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