Summary In the long-awaited, nickel-tin futures contract was listed today. Combined with the listing price of 102,070 yuan / ton, 120,190 yuan / ton of nickel tin futures contract, there are short-term buying opportunities on the first day. At the same time, cross-species arbitrage is also optimistic about the market, especially nickel futures, its gold...
In the long-awaited, nickel-tin futures contract was listed today. Combined with the listing price of 102,070 yuan / ton, 120,190 yuan / ton of nickel tin futures contract, there are short-term buying opportunities on the first day. At the same time, cross-species arbitrage is also optimistic about the market, especially nickel futures, its metal variety characteristics are destined to become the main target of arbitrage. First day: short-term buy has a chance
The industry believes that the nickel futures contract price is mainly based on the settlement price of the London Metal Exchange (LME), while the LME nickel price is at a stage low, according to the law of the new varieties listed in the past, the probability of nickel being sought after is higher. One of the big advantages is that after the ban on mineral production in Indonesia, there is a gap in the global supply of nickel ore. This gap is continually consuming nickel deposits in Chinese ports. Second, the falling prices have created a huge cost impact on Chinese nickel pig iron companies.
According to Cheng Xiaoyong, assistant director of Baocheng Futures Finance Research Institute, from the benchmark price of nickel futures, the price of 102,070 yuan/ton is low, and there is a period of upside down. On March 26, the spot price of nickel in Shanghai market is 103,350 yuan. /Ton. The LME nickel price has a structure of recent monthly discounts, so the first day of listing can take short-term buying active contracts and forward contract strategies.
As for tin futures, from the contract listing price, 120,190 yuan / ton is also low, on March 26, the Shanghai market tin spot price is 120,250 yuan / ton, if from the perspective of holding costs, and corresponding to LME tin in recent months The structure of the discount, short-term buying active contracts or far-month contracts is more appropriate.
Long-term: Nickel is optimistic about tin
According to market analysts, the global nickel ore supply will remain in a tight balance in 2015, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate upward. The target price for nickel in 2015 is $19,000-20,000. In 2015, the average price of tin will remain between 20,000 and 22,000 US dollars / ton, and global supply and demand will gradually transition from supply shortage to supply and demand balance.
Li Ying, an analyst at Galaxy Futures, expects to combine the price of non-ferrous nets + storage fees + risk-free interest + various expenses. The fluctuation range of nickel price is 103100-104210 yuan / ton, and the price of tin is 119300-122900 yuan / ton.
Guo Hua, a researcher at Dongzheng Futures Co., said that the large fluctuations in nickel prices in 2014 were caused by the supply end of laterite nickel ore. Since the mine ban in Indonesia, the import volume of China's laterite nickel ore has declined overall, and the market is sensitive to the expected shortage. The LME nickel futures price once rose to 2,1600 US dollars. With the increase in the export volume and supply of the Philippines in May, the market gradually repaired Expectations of shortages. At the same time, after the Indonesian mine ban, the number of Chinese companies investing in Indonesia has increased significantly. According to statistics, in September 2014, 29 smelters have been built, under construction and planned to be built in Indonesia, involving a total capacity of 625,000 tons of nickel. Metal equivalent. In the short-term, this part of the production capacity is slow to be put into production. It is unlikely to be released in 2015. It is expected that the new production of Indonesian ferronickel will not cover the reduction in supply caused by China's suspension.
For tin, Guo Hua believes that in the future, global supply shortages, domestic oversupply, and resource exploration investment will gradually increase. The recycling of tin resources will continue to strengthen, so that production and consumption will maintain a low growth rate. It is expected that the output will increase by about 1.5% and consumption will increase by about 1% in the next five years. In 2015, the average price of tin will remain between 20,000-22,000 USD/ton. Global supply and demand gradually transitioned from a supply shortage to a balance between supply and demand.
Industry: Forming a new benchmark for price
Bao Xingwang, deputy general manager of marketing company of Jinchuan Group Co., Ltd. said that nickel is one of the important strategic metals of the country. The development of China's nickel industry requires a futures market with Chinese pricing power. Nickel prices fluctuate drastically. As the largest nickel smelting enterprise in China, Jinchuan Group has strong demand for listed nickel futures. The listing of nickel futures will help promote the formation of the market-oriented pricing mechanism for the nickel industry, and provide effective risk management tools for upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, which will help enterprises control procurement costs and lock operating profits, and promote rational allocation of market resources. Guarantee the sustainable development of the nickel industry.
Lu Peng, general manager of the tin-nickel division of the Trade Division of Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., said that the listing of tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange will provide domestic tin producers, traders and consumers with a legal, open, fair and just future. The trading platform facilitates the standard tin commodity price discovery mechanism, providing a new trading path and value-preserving path for industry participants.
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