In the next 10 years, China's iron ore demand will continue to increase, and import dependence will continue to increase. Under the pressure of rising iron ore prices, China should actively participate in global iron ore pricing and gradually become an iron ore trading center and pricing center. Demand has increased unabated. The total demand for iron ore in China has shown an increasing trend, mainly due to the continuous increase in crude steel production. Although the annual growth rate of China's crude steel output will exceed the peak in the next 10 years, there will be more declines, but the total demand has not reached the peak, and the overall growth trend remains. According to statistics, the national crude steel output in 2011 was 683 million tons, an increase of 8.9% over the previous year. Even if the annual growth rate will fall back to 2% in the future, China's crude steel output will reach 820 million tons by 2020. If the average annual growth rate drops back to 3%, its crude steel output will be close to 900 million tons, and there is still room for growth of 200 million tons. The scale of China's crude steel production is so large, and it will continue to increase, which will inevitably increase the total demand for iron ore. According to the calculation of 800-900 million tons of crude steel, by 2020, China's total iron ore demand will reach or exceed 1.5 billion tons (60% of iron content), an increase of at least 20% over 2011. The continued growth of China's total demand for crude steel and iron ore in the next 10 years will mainly come from the following forces. The first is the “urbanization†process that is in the ascendant. After China's "urbanization" process after the reform and opening up, although it has been carried out for 20-30 years, it is only a period of 100 years since it was compared with the European and American countries. It has just entered the heyday and is far from over. In 2011, China's urbanization rate has exceeded 50%, and the urban population totaled about 700 million. For the first time, it surpassed the rural population, which is twice the total population of the United States and one quarter higher than the total population of the 27 EU countries. It is expected that in the next 10 years, with the reform of China's household registration system, a large number of rural population will enter the city, and China's urbanization will enter a period of accelerated development. The scale of the ultra-large-scale urban housing construction, public facilities construction and the resulting demand for crude steel and iron ore caused by such a large-scale urban population is unprecedented. The second is the construction of super-large-scale road traffic. Large-scale rural population migration to cities will generate huge regional passenger flow and logistics, which will inevitably require road traffic construction to match. The average railway ownership of Americans is more than 10 times higher than that of China. China still has a lot of room for development. According to the previous plan of the Ministry of Railways, China's railway network will reach 120,000 kilometers by 2020, and will fully enter the high-speed rail era, and major cities will build an 8-hour traffic circle. The Ministry of Communications also said that the national highway network approved by the state of 86,000 kilometers has only completed 58,700 kilometers, and nearly 40% of the road sections have not been completed. Therefore, the construction of China's expressways is still in a period of great construction and development, and at least a period of about 10 years of concentrated construction. The large-scale construction of high-speed railways and highways is undoubtedly huge. The third is the construction of environmental protection with great potential. While China's industrialization has made tremendous progress and become a "world factory", it has also caused serious environmental pollution. Governing multi-faceted pollution and comprehensively carrying out environmental protection requires investment of several trillion yuan in construction funds, and requires the construction and installation of large-scale environmental protection equipment. This is one of China's largest demand potentials and will be a new important driving force for China's demand for crude steel and iron ore. The fourth is the huge regional consumption gap. At present, China's per capita crude steel consumption has exceeded the world average, but there are great differences between regions. According to relevant data, the average consumption of 10 provinces and cities with the highest per capita consumption of crude steel in China is 770 kg, while the minimum 10 provinces are only about 100 kg. Such a large regional gap also means huge potential for consumption growth. It can be seen that the demand for crude steel and iron ore in China will still be in the stage of total growth in the next 10 years, and the development potential is huge. Import dependence will increase In the next 10 years, China's iron ore demand structure will further increase dependence on imported sources. This is because although China's steel production is huge, accounting for half of the world's total crude steel output, iron ore reserves account for only 14% of the world; iron content is less, accounting for only 9.6% of the world. This determines the long-term dependence of the Chinese steel industry on imported iron ore and the large number of imports. The author predicts that in the next 10 years, China's iron ore imports will exceed 1 billion tons, and the import dependence (calculated according to iron content) will increase from about 50% in 2010 to around 60%. In the future, while China's dependence on iron ore imports will increase, the import channels will become more diversified, and the proportion of imports of equity mines will also increase significantly, possibly accounting for more than 30% of total imports, or even about 50%. It must be pointed out that although China's iron ore import dependence will increase in the future, it is not worth making a fuss. In fact, this is the result of the development of globalization. Through the rational use of two resources at home and abroad, it is conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of China's economy. For domestic iron ore resources, more exploration, more reserves, and less mining should be used. In the era of "resources are kings", if you have food in your hands, you can not panic in your heart. Since the beginning of this century, iron ore prices have been rising all the way. Customs statistics show that before 2003, the average price of imported iron ore in the country was generally around US$30/ton, and by 2011 it had risen to US$164/ton, up more than 4 times, and domestic iron ore prices were correspondingly high. The author predicts that in the next 10 years, iron ore prices will remain at a high level, showing a turbulent trend. Among them, the price of imported iron ore is high, and you can see the price of 200 US dollars / ton, or even higher. In the future, the main reason for the high price of iron ore, the main reason for the high volatility, in addition to the strong demand, is the following three factors. The first is the currency depreciation factor. As is known to all, the Western countries headed by the United States have long squandered their food and owed too much debt. For example, the current US debt balance has reached 15 trillion US dollars, equivalent to its economic aggregate. With so much debt, it is impossible to repay "real money and silver" by increasing income and expenditure. To this end, reducing the amount of debt in the form of currency depreciation will become the main way for unconventional debt reduction in the United States and other Western countries. Since the international market iron ore is denominated in US dollars, the continued depreciation of the US dollar will naturally push up the price of iron ore. The second is resource protection factors. There are some indications that the substantial increase in taxes on resources such as ore has become a global trend due to the requirements of mineral resources protection. Following Australia’s adoption of the draft law on Mineral Resources Lease Tax 2011, Brazil’s Pará State announced that it will also increase its mineral tax since April 2012. India and Vietnam have also raised iron ore taxes, and Indonesia has an intention to follow up. . While increasing the resource tax burden in countries around the world, China has also carried out resource tax and fee reforms. The main content is to increase the rate of ad valorem, and it is also possible to levy environmental taxes in the future. As a result, it is bound to increase the tax burden of relevant enterprises, and to a certain extent push up the prices of resources such as iron ore. The third is a highly monopolistic factor. At present, the world's three giant iron ore production accounts for about 40% of the world's finished ore production, accounting for 70% of the world's iron ore trade volume (1 billion tons). It is expected that the world's mining giants will continue to promote expansion strategies, mergers and acquisitions on a global scale, and seize iron ore rights. Therefore, in the future, the monopoly of iron ore in the world will only increase and it will be difficult to reduce. Affected by this, the world's mining giants can control the supply of goods in the global market at any time, maintaining a higher sales price. China is the world's largest consumer of iron ore. The Chinese factor has a major impact on the price of iron ore in the international market, and even a decisive impact. It is a pity that for a period of time, due to the lack of other conditions, China’s iron ore price has little right to speak and even lost. This situation has begun to reverse in recent years. The important sign is that various types of iron ore trading markets have begun to emerge in mainland China. For example, the China Iron Ore Spot Trading Platform, which was established in early 2012, began to simulate operations and attracted three major mines to join. It is expected that with the deepening of reform and opening up, more iron ore trading markets, especially the establishment of futures markets, will cause price information to emerge in China and be processed. Affected by this, in the next 10 years, China will become a global iron ore trading center and pricing center, highlighting the price influence of China's demand factors and truly participating in the price discourse right.
Wire Stainless Steel Product.
China Kitchen Rack,Sink Grid,Stainless Mesh Storage Baskets,Kitchen Wire Storage, we offered that you can trust. Welcome to do business with us.
Kitchen Rack is made of high quality 304 stainless steel, This kind of material steel luxury, never rust, resist corruption, easily clean, safe, healthy and durable. Prevent rust or chemicals from contaminating food and damaging health
Kitchenware,Bread basket,dish rack,cutting board rack,Sink Grid,dish drying rack
Shenzhen Lanejoy Technology Co.,LTD , https://www.szcoolingrack.com