In 2011, in the difficult rebalancing of the global economy, China's steel industry also experienced some kind of uneasiness and uneasiness: capacity growth and falling profits; cost pressures and steel prices weak; domestic demand is weak and exports are blocked; funds are tightening The return is not smooth... In 2012, both Chinese steel producers and Chinese steel traders were confused about the 'new profit growth point' and had some expectations. What will happen to the steel market in the Year of the Dragon? To talk about China's steel industry, we must combine China's national conditions; on China's economy, we must have a global perspective. Otherwise, many things are difficult to explain clearly... It can be said that the Chinese steel market wants to improve in 2012, unless the Chinese economy and the world economy have overcome the 'old disease'. Otherwise, China's steel market is still difficult to shake. Looking at China first, the Chinese economy is facing downward pressure. From the perspective of investment, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will fall this year. In investment, manufacturing accounts for 35%, infrastructure (electricity, transportation, water conservancy, environment, public facilities) accounts for 25%, and real estate accounts for about 22%. Manufacturing investment is highly correlated with exports, infrastructure investment, corporate profits, etc., and will slow down to 20% this year. The impact of real estate investment will be reduced to 15%. Due to the impact of land acquisition and new construction projects, the number of guaranteed housing will decrease. In the middle of this year, there will be a large decline, real estate investment will decline, and supply will slow down. This year, the nominal growth of fixed asset investment in the whole society may be around 20%; GDP growth may be further reduced to around 8.5%. Looking at the international market, the growth rate of the world economy continues to slow down. According to simulations by the World Bank, as the anxiety rises, the growth rate of developing countries may fall from around 6% in 2011 to around 5.5% in 2012; while the growth rate in developed countries is in 2011 and 2012. Years may slip below 2%. The financial problems of developed countries have spread to developing countries, leading to a slowdown in growth and weakening of poverty reduction. The exact transmission mechanism varies from country to country. The transmission channels include trade links, the fragility of the financial system, and the reduction of trade and infrastructure financing. risk. At the same time, the current economic problems in Europe have evolved into political issues, and the future development situation is extremely complicated. In fact, the situation is far from being as 'simple' as mentioned above. Here, we only look at the mainstream trend of the economy through the established phenomenon, and frame the macro background of China's steel production and steel market operation so as not to deviate too much. What's more, under the current characteristics of China's national conditions, the social causes of many economic phenomena often become an extremely important reference or consideration for the government to formulate macro-control policies, and many economic contradictions are not entirely dependent on ideals. The market is freely regulated. In the face of the entangled steel market in the previous year, no matter how we blame the disadvantages of the macro environment (the government adopted a moderately tight monetary policy to curb inflation, and intensified the potential social conflicts to curb excessive housing prices). The strict control measures, the tough energy-saving emission reduction targets adopted to fulfill the environmental commitments made by the Chinese government to the international community, etc., can not but acknowledge the importance of the steel industry's own factors... Perhaps anyone will be generous, or what 'blind or over-investment', or what 'industry concentration is low', or what's 'abundance of growth' and so on. In fact, there is no more need to find these 'post-accounts' in the background of the national conditions at the time, but this is by no means the reason why we can ignore the 'self-redemption thinking of 'study to knowing' and take concrete practical actions. - Not only in China's steel industry, but also in China's macro economy. But we must know that in the face of China's national conditions at this stage, the temporary practical confusion is that institutional reform is ideal, technical operation is realistic, and policy makers always weigh between ideal and reality. The complex international and domestic political and economic environment determines that a smooth transition is the choice of the Chinese government to maximize returns. Therefore, whether it is the '18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China at the end of this year or the national 'two sessions' in early March, it will be an important decision-making theme. Under the above guiding ideology, the government's policy orientation will be based on the potential of the Chinese economy. The growth rate has been reduced to the basic facts for comprehensive regulation. In fact, this is also the definition of China's 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan.' At the same time, we should also be clear that when the market's viability is unable to stop the recession of the economy, it is natural logic to hope that the government will lend a helping hand. However, the 2012 government and the 2008 government are completely different in background. The biggest difference is the difference in fiscal constraints. The government under fiscal constraints must face the rigidity of expenditure and the elasticity of income. The weakening of economic flexibility will inevitably reduce the fiscal revenue in 2012. ... For the time being, we will not continue to explore. The above situation tells us that if we judge the operation of China's steel industry in 2012 and the basic trend of China's steel market, one of the most important factors is that the external environment is powerless, and its own adjustment is extremely difficult; but regardless of the steel production plant or If the steel trader is still unable to redeem the 'old disease' that he has accumulated for a long time and still clearly recognizes it, and still only stays in the correct 'theory' cognition category, it will still not help the steel market this year. Better. However, under the harsh market competition and competition, who can truly, consciously and actively sacrifice the company's own interests (consciously control production capacity, investment, timely production reduction) to take into account the overall interests of the industry (really relying on product supply and demand, to effectively regulate Price)...? For the elimination of backwardness, control of production capacity, reduction of inventory, reduction of costs, increase of industrial concentration, etc., etc., its role in the steel market's 'reason', it is no longer necessary to go to Luo. Because, for many years, we have not lost our way to the unknown, but whether we can consciously put into effective action... It is still difficult to see now; although it is difficult, it should be done. In 2012, we should also be very clear about such a national situation: the problems accumulated by the Chinese economy in the 'takeoff' of the past 30 years are untimely superimposed in the contradiction of the world economic slowdown, and the contraction of total demand is an inevitable As a result, the era of double-digit economic growth in China has passed. At this time, the mainstream forecasts of China's 2012 GDP growth rate by domestic and foreign authorities are around 8.3%-8.5%. The economics community's opinion on 'economic downturn' is consistent. For 2012 China's GDP growth rate, the most pessimistic forecast is 7%, and the most optimistic is 9%. In 2012, we should also be very clear about the reality that the convergence of consumption in the international market forces the Chinese market to converge, and the Chinese market is overdrawn due to the strengthening of stimulus. The manufacturing industry will face rigid cost pressures in structural adjustment. This kind of pressure firstly shows that the company's profitability is reduced, and the cash flow is tightening at the same time. Enterprises with unsustainable cash flow will have to go to inventory first, then go to capacity. The industry has begun to differentiate, and the characteristics of 'periphery' and 'center' are more obvious; central enterprises will accelerate the process of mergers and acquisitions, and peripheral enterprises will shrink sharply... In 2012, China’s steel market was in the above 'inside', Under the influence of the 'outside' environment, it is still difficult to fundamentally improve; in the context of the 'neutral' and 'fine-tuning' stage of the current macroeconomic policy observation period, even if the government will change the mainstream contradictions in the overall political, economic and social operations, The release of positive fiscal and monetary policies with a 'good' stimulus effect, the actual improvement of the steel market also needs to lag at least 3-6 months (the psychological effect will be advanced). As far as current observations are concerned, this effective positive fiscal and monetary policy has not yet been highlighted. In 2012, in a new year, we should look at the steel market with a new perspective and new thinking. In the past, whenever the steel market was sluggish or bad, we have habitually attributed the fall in steel prices to the macro environment or policies – there is no doubt that the macro environment and policies are important preconditions and elements of the steel market; But now, we can no longer just explain the external causes of this dependence. In 2012, examining the world economic situation, whether it is China's macro-economy or the operation of various industries, strengthening the 'endogenous growth' operating mechanism, it will be a kind of active adjustment and active adaptation to the 'Long Year' cloud and the economic environment. trend.
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