The stock market "black horse" Baotou Steel Rare Earth can continue to lead the myth of rare earth?

Editor's note:
On Friday, the stock markets of the two cities opened lower and went lower. After heavy losses in the afternoon, they fell below the important support of 2661 points and set a new low in October last year. The predominant plate rare earth permanent magnets became the hardest-hit area, with a plate loss of 5.78%. Leading stocks Baotou Steel Rare Earth (reports, information) have been relentlessly sealed in the daily limit, does this mean that the concept of rare earth has become the end of the strong?

The flag Baotou Steel Rare Earth (600111) collapsed and fell on the disk yesterday. Since the launch of the rare earth market last year, the leading mid-term strength of Baotou Steel Rare Earth (600111) has seen heavy volume decline. Other related "mineral" concept stocks have also experienced collective collapse. The phenomenon makes the original seemingly beautiful road more and more like a dead end.
Today, the two cities once again showed a sluggish trend. The Shanghai Composite Index opened directly below the previous lows and finally set a new low of 2,641.39 points, and covered the gap of 2565.66 points left in October last year. The transactions in the two cities shrank again.
According to statistics, the net outflow of large-capital funds was 2.3 billion throughout the day. In terms of sector funds, there was a net inflow of funds in real estate, engineering construction, banking, paper printing, and mechanical sectors. Funds outflows were among the highest in net non-ferrous metals, steel, instrumentation, medicine, and electricity. For individual stocks, the top 5 funds inflows are China Construction.
Judging from the hot spot distribution of the market this year, “mining the mine” is always active as an important investment line. Regardless of whether it owns mineral resources or is ready to intervene, as long as it puts on the coat price of “mining”, it can get a stir. Recently, many listed real estate companies that are facing the most stringent regulation in history have expanded their business scope or have taken shares or acquired mineral resources. From this, it can be seen that the current market is facing a resource heat wave attack. In today's session, since the start of the rare earth market last year, the continuous growth of rare earth on the continuous growth of rare earth in the Baotou Iron and Steel rare earth, and other related "mining" concept stocks also appear collective collapse, this phenomenon makes the original seemingly beautiful road more and more like A dead end. Of course, as we pointed out yesterday, when the real hot stocks complete the repo, the probability of the market completing the bottoming will increase. The central bank unexpectedly raised the issuance rate of March central bank bills by 8.2 basis points, which also caused the sudden increase in short-term interest-rate expectations. Today's coincidence with Friday is very easy to remind us of a weekend rate hike. If the boots fall, then Friday The low point that was explored was not far from the bottom of the near future. Therefore, in operation, we believe that except for those hot stocks that need to cool down, other overvalued stocks with basic adjustments can be appropriately low-sucked.

How long can the rare earth myth hold?
In the process of the stock market turning around and looking down again, the wave of rare earth speculation has swept again, but it changed its face: the rise of small rare earths. Analysts pointed out that in the midst of sedimentation, rare earth stocks were spared, or mainly due to the support of rare earth price increases.
Last week, the price of rare earth continued to maintain a rapid growth. In addition to the metal lanthanum in light rare earth, all other kinds of rare earth prices have risen in different ranges, among which the price of medium- and heavy-earth rare earth has the largest increase. Compared with the previous week, cerium oxide has reached a staggering increase of 53.9%, and metal gallium and antimony oxide have also risen to 17.4% and 21.2%. Among light rare earths, antimony oxide rose by 15.4%.
The rare earth resources in the north are dominated by light rare earths, and the rare earth resources in the south are mainly heavy rare earths. The outbreak of small rare earth stocks yesterday may have been related to the increase in the prices of heavy rare earths in the past week. In addition, after the overall situation of Baotou Rare Earth's unified integration of northern rare earth resources has been set, the integration of rare earths in the south needs to be gradually solved, which may also explain the reason for the larger increase in the number of small rare earth stocks in the south yesterday.
However, the speculation tide of rare earth concept stocks has long gone from "little ghosts" to "big brothers" and then from "big brothers" to "little ghosts". This series of hype has long made the price of rare earth stocks far from the The value of rare earth prices has skyrocketed. It is worth noting that this year's continuous speculation of rare earth stocks, in addition to the soaring prices of rare earth, the state's policy on the rare earth industry is also a very important factor. However, the intensive regulation and control will inevitably make the rare earth and its downstream industries full of irrational risks. In particular, the middlemen and rare earth companies will stop buying and speculating, and will increase the current price of rare earth price bubbles. Therefore, yesterday's small rare earth concept stocks The rising lead is worthy of caution, reminding investors to take precautions against risks.
Rare Earth Industry Integration: Removing the Small Flaw Board to Form a Fleet The National Rare Earth Work Conference was recently held in Beijing. The meeting proposed to promote the joint reorganization of rare earth industries, speed up the formation of large-scale enterprise groups, strengthen and improve the management of rare earth industries, speed up the development of strategic emerging industries, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the rare earth industry.

Improve the collection of rare earth resource tax standards After years of development, China's rare earth mining, smelting separation and application technology research and development made great progress, the industry scale continues to expand. However, the development of the rare earth industry still has problems such as continued illegal mining, excessive expansion of smelting separation capacity, serious damage to the ecological environment and waste of resources, lagging development of high-end applications, and chaotic export orders, which seriously affect the healthy development of the rare earth industry. In response to these problems, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that actively promoting the joint reorganization of rare earth industries and forming an industrial structure dominated by large enterprises is an effective way to improve the management of rare earth industries. He also disclosed that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is studying and formulating specific plans to accelerate the establishment of large-scale enterprise groups in accordance with the principles of overall planning, policy guidance, and market operations.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also reiterated the significance of raising the standard for the collection of rare earth resource taxes. According to the relevant person in charge, the standard for the collection of rare earth resource taxes has been maintained at 0.4 yuan-2 yuan/t for a long time, which is not conducive to the protection of resources and the environment. From April 1, 2011, the state has adjusted the resource tax of rare earths, light rare earth 60 yuan / t, medium-heavy rare earth 30 yuan / t. This will be conducive to the rational development of rare earth resources and environmental protection, inhibiting the blind development of mining, smelting and separation production.

Establishing and Perfecting the Industry Supervision System This meeting is the further implementation and implementation of the “State Council’s Several Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Rare Earth Industry” issued by the State Council. In addition to industry consolidation and raising the tax on rare earth resources, a series of supporting measures have also been mentioned. Ministry units such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Commerce all stated that they must cooperate closely with each other according to the requirements of the State Council to implement responsibilities and pay close attention to improving the management policies of rare earths. The relevant local governments also expressed their desire to study and formulate specific policies and measures in light of actual conditions and establish a sound and coordinated industry supervision system.
Experts also said that China's rare earth resources are abundant, but the development of rare earth applications technology is slow, and the vigorous development of rare earth applications industry is to fully play the important role of rare earth strategic resources and support the needs of strategic emerging industries. The state shall actively promote rare-earth mining enterprises, production enterprises, application companies, and research and development institutions throughout the country, strengthen joint production, research and application, accelerate technological innovation, and accelerate the development and application of high-end rare earth new materials and new products. Lead rare earth enterprises to adopt new technologies and new processes, improve resource utilization, reduce pollutant emissions, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading.
"All these measures are aimed at protecting valuable resources and ecological environment. They are in line with international practice and the relevant rules of the World Trade Organization. They are not only responsible for the development of China but also responsible for the development of the world," said the person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Preventing hype or becoming a focus of work As the national authorities pay more attention to the issue of rare earths, the chaos of the rare earth industry has greatly improved. At the same time, the “Rare Earth Cabbage Price” phenomenon that has been deeply criticized by the Chinese people also has a noticeable change. Take the heavy rare earth yttrium oxide as an example, it has risen from less than 30,000 yuan/t several years ago to 200,000 yuan this year. t. At the same time, the relevant departments resisted the cries of Japan, the United States, and other countries, rationally reduced the export quota of rare earth. Wang Min, deputy director of the Ministry of Land and Resources, believes that the development, management and protection of rare earth minerals in China have achieved positive results in recent years. They have strengthened the evaluation of the rare earth mineral resources potential, strengthened the management of rare earth mining rights, launched special rectification of rare earth mineral development orders, and established the first batch of countries. Rare earth planning mining areas and other initiatives, rare earth mineral resources have been effectively protected and utilized.
According to experts, how to avoid internal friction and rationally allocate market resources in the next step of rare earth integration, promote leading enterprises in the downstream of rare earths, especially high-tech enterprises with international competitiveness, and upstream enterprises to carry out strategic alliances and strictly punish trade enterprises and individuals for hoarding rare earths. The hype behavior may become the focus of the next step in the relevant department.

A month's price increase of 10 million yuan per t of rare earth into the bubble era?
Rare earth is not rare, why the price rises more than 10 million yuan per t in one month!
Yesterday, Wang Caifeng, deputy inspector of the Raw Materials Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and head of the preparation group of the China Rare Earth Industry Association, told the Morning Post reporter that he bid farewell to the “price of cabbage” for the upstream rare earth enterprises, but for the downstream companies. When there is a certain degree of growth, there should be normal convergence.
At present, rare earth single-oxide cerium oxide with a purity of ≥99.99% has reached 19 million yuan/t, which is already more than twice the price of silver. The price of the product in the first half of May was only 8.2 million yuan / ton, a rise of more than 10 million yuan / t in just 1 month. In addition, antimony oxide and antimony oxide also had a one-fold increase.
Yesterday, Zhejiang, a well-known lighting company procurement head said that as a rare earth downstream users, energy-saving lamps with rare earth trichromatic phosphor prices are almost changing every day, and it is difficult to buy, there are many lighting companies in Zhejiang have stopped producing fluorescent lamps.
RE value return?
Rare earth is a strategic resource and is widely used in various fields of national economy and defense industry.
In recent years, China has begun to strengthen the regulation and control of the rare earth industry, but it has suffered criticism from countries such as Japan and the United States. In tandem with the "nonsense", rare earth prices have risen by 1 to 6 times in half a year.
Relative to the heavy rare earth in the south, the price of light rare earth in northern China rose slightly. According to the quote of the Baotou Rare Earth Enterprise Confederation (Alliance) on June 4, the price of yttrium oxide was 169,000 to 170,000 yuan/t, and that of antimony oxide was 219,000 to 22 million/t. Compared with April 29, the quotation rose by nearly 40,000-50,000 yuan/t. For the rare earth price is not a "value return", a large-scale rare earth smelting and separation business in Zhangzhou, said that this is the market "buy and sell" the formation of rare earth prices out of the "cabbage price" nothing bad.
On May 19, the State Council stated in its “Several Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Rare Earth Industry” that reforming the price formation mechanism of rare earth products, intensifying policy control, and gradually realizing the unity of rare earth values ​​and prices.
Xue Xuefeng, an analyst at CITIC Securities, wrote a research report on the 13th. Although in the past China’s rare earth was sold for a long time, the main reason for the continuous rise of rare earths since the beginning of this year was policy control rather than a real return to value, middlemen and rare earths. The company's stock and speculation make current rare earth prices have a certain "bubble."

Prices soared "injury industry chain"
From the price of “cabbage” to “silver price,” rare earth also caused damage to the domestic industrial chain.
Yesterday, a senior source of a large rare earth smelting and separation company in Zhangzhou said that despite the high price of rare earth, many traders are still reluctant to ship.
Yesterday, the above-mentioned person in charge of the procurement department of Zhejiang Lighting Company stated that fluorescent lamp companies need to add rare earth raw materials, and many small businesses cannot support the cost pressure and can only stop production. According to "Economic Information Daily" reported yesterday, Minmetals Donglin Lighting (Jiangxi) Co., Ltd., a general manager, said that due to the current tight supply of phosphors, many companies have been suspended, the impact of the second half for the entire industry will gradually be reflected.
“Many enterprises in Ganzhou are increasing their sales revenues, and the market is not entirely a state of “having price and no market”.” According to the person in charge of the above-mentioned Yanzhou Rare Earth Smelting and Separating Company, there are some companies in Zhangzhou that are “for money only” and do not ship. , And some companies only ship to high-end customers, resulting in a lot of downstream small business raw materials "out of stock."
Wang Caifeng also stated that there are downstream companies that have accumulated rare earth raw materials. If the materials are made into lights, it may not be profitable, and the profits from selling rare earth raw materials are very high. This phenomenon is not sustainable.
“Although phosphors are very important, NdFeB is the main material that drives the development of the entire rare-earth industry chain.” Wang Caifeng said that rare-earth output mainly fluctuates around Nd-Fe-B materials, and if there is no Nd-Fe-B material industry, rare earths are prolific Less production does not matter at all.
Wang Caifeng also said that the amount of rare earths used in fluorescent lamps and hydrogen storage materials is currently declining. With the advancement of technology, many materials have been continuously replaced, but there is currently no substitute for neodymium-iron-boron materials.
Wang Caifeng said yesterday that many NdFeB companies that participated in the National Rare Earth Conference in Beijing (held on the 13th and 14th in Beijing) recently complained to them that the price of rare earths rose too fast, causing NdFeB materials to increase in price. Although the current day is not yet a “opening pot”, if it is still “available without price” in the next years, it will definitely cause great damage to the rare earth industry.
Phosphor Ingredients Rise Roughly 10 Times Rare Earth Supply and Demand Impact Energy Saving Lamp Industry Nerve Rare Earth Prices soared more than 10 times a year, and phosphors rose from 300 yuan/kg three months ago to 1800 yuan/kg... Crazy gains not only in the industry People are stunned by it, and it also makes speculation and profit-seeking people crazy. The national rare earth work conference that ended on the 14th came news: China will renovate rare earth industries.

Rare earth once a day price, corporate orders difficult Beijing held a national rare earth work conference, so that thousands of miles away from Hangzhou Linan energy-saving lamps companies are very concerned about. Because rare earth is an important raw material for energy-saving lamp light sources, the most used electric light source is a rare earth trichromatic fluorescent lamp.
“Now the rare earth can be said to be a price per day.” Luo Chongyuan, marketing manager of Hangzhou Yuzhong Gaohong Lighting Appliance Co., Ltd., told reporters yesterday, “Phosphor prices have risen by at least 10 times compared with the second half of last year. Now companies take orders. It is really difficult. I can't quote for more than one week.” Yuzhong Gaohong Lighting is the largest energy-saving lamp manufacturer in Lin'an. Affected by the rise in fluorescent lamp raw materials, the price of their energy-saving lamps has risen by about 10% from last year. Such as an original energy-saving lamp 3.9 yuan, the latest price rose to 4.3 yuan. "This is not too much. Some enterprise product prices are two or three percent."
As the main raw material of three-color phosphors in the energy-saving lamp fitting capillary tube, rare earth accounts for 75% of the raw material. It is reported that before the prices of three-phosphor phosphors rose, the proportion of phosphors in the total cost of energy-saving lamps accounted for only 10%. After the price increase of phosphors, the cost of energy-saving lamps was greatly increased.
Lin'an has become a well-known gathering place for energy-saving lamps in the country. Currently there are more than 300 energy-saving lamp companies with an output value of 5.8 billion yuan. It is estimated that nearly a quarter of the 10,000 tons of phosphor produced last year were absorbed by Lin'an.

Resource speculation spread, it will be heavy fist rectification "can not fry the rare earth, you can also stocks." Rare earth prices have long been so speculative speculators move. Since last year, the rare earth plate represented by Baotou Steel Rare Earth out of a big rally. Yesterday, the closing price of Baotou Rare Earth was 77.14 yuan. Taking into account the ex-rights factor, the actual price has quadrupled from a year ago. This makes investors who hold scarce resource stocks earn a pity.
China's rare earth production and exports account for more than 90% of the world's total. The high profits of scarce resources have stimulated the surge of merchandise including traders and upstream companies. In recent years, the trend of speculation has spread. This has made the dilemma of downstream companies “seeking rice to pan”.
At present, there are many outstanding problems in the production of rare earths in China, including the continued illegal exploitation, the low level of resource utilization, and the chaotic export order. To this end, the State Council this year has specifically formulated a number of opinions on promoting the sustainable and sound development of the rare earth industry, and has implemented total control over rare earth ore mining. From April 1 this year, the state has also adjusted the resource tax for rare earth: light rare earth 60 yuan/t, medium-heavy rare earth 30 yuan/t. Prior to this, the collection criteria for rare earth resource taxes remained at 0.4 yuan/t-2 yuan/t for a long time.

Or trigger industry reshuffle, to see who laughed to the last raw materials, can stay, continued bullish, but also triggered the pain of the energy-saving lamp industry. Some small businesses are struggling and have to stop production. The reporter found an office lamp of an energy-saving lamp company that had been contacted before. It was actually "this number has been shut down."
The skyrocketing growth of three-color phosphors has clearly aggravated the chaos in the energy-saving lamp industry. “This will lead to more companies using low-cost halogen powder to subsume well. The cost of halogen powder is less than that of three-color phosphors. One of the industry sources, who asked not to be named, said: "Compared with the energy-saving lamps using three-color phosphors, the efficacy and life span of the halogen powder lamps must be greatly reduced."
Recently, the Zhejiang Provincial Lighting Association held a symposium on thinking and countermeasures caused by soaring prices of rare earth phosphors in Lin'an. Weng Maoyuan, president of the Provincial Lighting Association, believes that it is absolutely impossible to expect phosphor prices to return to the past. However, to strengthen the docking of upstream and downstream industries and negotiate prices is a feasible path to solve the problem. In the long run, the industry reshuffle triggered by the sharp rise in raw material prices is not necessarily a bad thing. Some companies with good reputation and strong products can overcome this difficulty by continuing to strengthen management and do their own work, and laugh at the end.

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