Coke down space is limited in the end

I. Fundamental Standard & Poor's cut U.S. economic growth expectations for the next three years; Fed officials: May need to raise interest rates 13 years ago; Brazil and Argentina weather abnormalities lead to concerns about lower soybean production; U.S. Department of Agriculture cuts China’s soybean production; July’s primary aluminum The output dropped by 3%; the crude steel production in the first half of the previous year increased slightly from the previous month; the economic data of the United States was concerned; last week, it was recommended to buy the thread to throw coke to make a profit, which could be temporarily closed to close.

On the 18th, spot prices of coke increased steadily throughout the country. Taiyuan, Tianjin Port (7.07, -0.11, -1.53%) area coke rose 30-50 yuan / ton;

As of August 15, the inventory of coking coal in Tianjin Port was 174.1 tons, which was 21,000 tons less than the previous day and an increase of 581,000 tons from the beginning of May.

On the 18th, the trading volume of coking coal in various regions was relatively good, and the market was bullish on the outlook.

On the 18th, the increase in steel prices slowed down, and they were mixed. A survey of steel prices in 20 major cities across the country showed that the 1.0mm cold rolling average price was 5492 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the average price of HRB335 20MM rebar was down 536 yuan, down 2 yuan/ton; the average price of 6.5 high-line 5125 yuan, up 2 yuan/ton. The price adjustments of steel mills were mixed and the price adjustment ranged from -70-60 yuan/ton.

II. Comments On August 18, 2011, the main contract of the Coke ** of the DCE changed from the J1109 to the 1201,1201 contract with the opening price of 2,309 yuan/ton, the minimum price reached 2261 points, and the daily price closed at 2,282 yuan/ton. For 1816 hands, the holdings amounted to 1884, the daily increase of 450 positions, and the j1109 contract closed at 2139.

The recent coke market, as reported in the monthly report, "the spot price rose steadily, and the price continued to fall." At present, the coke ** September contract price has been in the same spot price range (2150-2200) in Tianjin Port.

The fundamentals On the one hand from January to June and the middle of July, the growth of coke production has been much higher than the growth rate of crude steel production. The oversupply of coke has continued to increase in the first half of the year, and the long-term negative coke; on the Other hand, in early August. The 1.94 million tons of crude steel production increased slightly from the previous month, and the long-term historical record of high output means that the demand for coke is still strong and short-term profitable. The recent spot coke is strong, there is general increase of 30-50 yuan / ton, the current price in September has completely dropped to the spot price range, and close to the delivery of the contract in September shrinking, moving positions is not obvious. A standard star line appears on the daily chart, or a reversal (stops) signal.

Proposal: Do not have significant downside, wait and see, pre-empty wins. If the rebound choose 1201 contract rallies are better. On Monday, it was recommended that the far-month contract purchase thread to throw coke again to be profitable and objectively, and it could temporarily take profits.